This report reveals that over 185 million internal displacements were triggered by floods globally since 2008, with Africa suffering around 29 million displacements between 2008 and 2022. Focusing on Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, a new flood displacement risk model has been developed to provide future movement estimations, employing a unique vulnerability assessment. Results suggest a potential increase in average annual displacement of two to four times under future climatic conditions, necessitating informed disaster risk reduction policies.
The report underscores the alarming trend of internal displacements caused by flooding, which have surged to over 185 million instances worldwide since 2008. Africa has notably suffered, with approximately 29 million flood-related displacements recorded between 2008 and 2022, positioning it as the second most affected continent. This study zeroes in on the Horn of Africa—specifically Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia—introducing an innovative flood displacement risk model designed under Work Package 3 of the HABITABLE project. The model aims to furnish reliable projections of future displacement patterns, thereby assisting in the development of effective policy measures. The methodology of this model is distinguished by its unique vulnerability assessment, which takes into consideration various factors frequently excluded from conventional risk assessments. These include direct repercussions on residences and livelihoods, as well as the indirect effects on essential facilities and services. Furthermore, this assessment employs a probabilistic approach, amalgamating climatic, hydrological, and hydraulic modeling to gauge the influences driving displacement. By utilizing cutting-edge technologies and this novel vulnerability assessment framework, the study articulates displacement risk through metrics such as average annual displacement (AAD) alongside probable maximum displacement. Findings from the evaluation, which considers both current and future climatic scenarios—encompassing both optimistic and pessimistic outlooks—signal a potential doubling to quadrupling of AAD in comparison to existing conditions, particularly alarming for pessimistic projections that predict a staggering ninefold escalation in displacement risk for regions like Sudan. The findings serve as pivotal inputs for formulating national and subnational disaster risk reduction strategies, facilitating the identification of zones susceptible to extensive displacement. This information equips policymakers with the necessary data to undertake informed risk management initiatives aimed at averting and addressing displacement repercussions. Ultimately, the report advocates for the establishment of thorough policies and strategic frameworks to mitigate floods-induced displacement risks and safeguard vulnerable populations.
The phenomenon of displacement due to climate-related incidents has escalated significantly over the past decade, with floods emerging as one of the primary drivers of forced movement within countries. Since 2008, global figures indicate that flooding has impacted over 185 million individuals, with Africa witnessing nearly 29 million displacements. The Horn of Africa is particularly vulnerable due to its unique climatic and socio-economic conditions, prompting the investigation into more effective displacement risk models. The HABITABLE project seeks to fill gaps in existing risk assessments by incorporating a comprehensive vulnerability perspective, thus enabling more accurate predictions of future displacement trends. This enhanced understanding is crucial for the implementation of effective disaster risk reduction measures.
In summary, the report details a pressing global challenge of flood-induced displacement, with Africa witnessing significant impacts. The novel risk model developed for the Horn of Africa provides critical insights into future displacement dynamics, indicating a worrying potential rise in both average and maximum displacement figures. Policymakers are presented with an actionable framework that emphasizes the necessity for informed disaster risk reduction strategies, ultimately aimed at protecting communities from the adverse effects of flooding. The recommendations put forth call for the establishment of comprehensive, evidence-based policies to mitigate these risks and enhance resilience among affected populations.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
