The report examines flood-induced internal displacement in the Horn of Africa, highlighting that floods have caused over 185 million displacements globally since 2008, with Africa accounting for around 29 million. It introduces a new flood displacement risk model developed under the HABITABLE project, which provides calibrated future displacement estimates. The model incorporates a thorough vulnerability assessment and employs probabilistic modeling techniques. Predictions indicate a potential two to four times increase in average annual displacement, with even higher risks for pessimistic scenarios, particularly in Sudan. Recommendations for comprehensive disaster risk reduction strategies are provided.
This report addresses the critical issue of internal displacement caused by flooding in the Horn of Africa, focusing specifically on Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia. Since 2008, flooding has resulted in over 185 million internal displacements worldwide, with Africa accounting for approximately 29 million of these incidents, making the continent the second most affected region. To aid in future disaster management and policy formulation, a novel flood displacement risk model has been developed as part of the HABITABLE project, under Work Package 3. This model provides calibrated estimates of future displacement movements based on a comprehensive vulnerability assessment that incorporates often-overlooked factors such as the direct effects of flooding on housing and livelihoods, along with the indirect impacts on critical infrastructure and services. The vulnerability assessment employs a probabilistic methodology, integrating various modeling techniques, including climatic, hydrological, and hydraulic models, to evaluate the determinants of displacement. The study assesses displacement risk using metrics such as average annual displacement (AAD) and probable maximum displacement. Analytical results reveal a potential tripling to quadrupling of AAD compared to current levels, with even more alarming predictions for pessimistic climate scenarios, suggesting that Sudan could witness a ninefold increase in displacement risk. The insights derived from this research serve to inform national and local disaster risk reduction strategies, facilitating the identification of areas that are particularly vulnerable to large-scale displacement. Decision-makers can leverage this information to implement risk-informed interventions aimed at preventing and mitigating the adverse impacts of displacement. The report concludes with strategic recommendations aimed at developing comprehensive policies to effectively address and manage flood-induced displacement risk, ultimately safeguarding affected populations.
Flooding represents a significant humanitarian challenge globally, with millions of individuals forced to relocate due to the destructive impacts on their homes and communities. In the Horn of Africa, frequent climatic events exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, leading to heightened displacement risks. As climate change contributes to increasingly severe weather patterns, understanding and mitigating the risks associated with flood-induced displacement becomes imperative. This report not only highlights the current displacement situation but also emphasizes the need for integrated planning and response strategies to build resilience among affected populations in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia.
In conclusion, the report underscores the urgent need for innovative models to assess and understand flood displacement risks in the Horn of Africa. With significant projected increases in displacement likely under varying climate scenarios, it is essential for national and local authorities to consider the findings of this study for informed policymaking. Comprehensive strategies that address both immediate and long-term displacement risks will be crucial in protecting vulnerable populations and minimizing the humanitarian impacts of flooding in the region.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
