Egypt is bolstering its military efforts in Somalia before the December deadline for Ethiopian troop withdrawal, having signed a military cooperation agreement with Somalia and dispatched military personnel to support local forces against Al Shabab. Ethiopia, concerned about this escalation and already present with 22,000 troops, has increased its military presence in response, reflecting growing tensions surrounding the Nile dam dispute and regional sovereignty issues.
Egypt is enhancing its military mission in Somalia in anticipation of the December 31 deadline for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from the nation. Recent reports indicate that Cairo is not only training and supporting Somali security forces to counter Al Qaeda-affiliated militants but is also actively increasing its military presence on the ground. In August, Egypt and Somalia, both members of the Arab League, entered into a significant military cooperation agreement, prompting Egypt to dispatch weapons, military advisers, trainers, and counter-terrorism commandos to Mogadishu. It is anticipated that thousands of Egyptian personnel will be involved in this military effort by year’s end. Ethiopia currently maintains approximately 22,000 troops in Somalia under a bilateral agreement and as part of an African Union peacekeeping mandate to assist in combating the Al Shabab terrorist group. Relations between Egypt, Somalia, and Ethiopia have soured, particularly due to Cairo’s concerns over the Nile dam constructed by Addis Ababa, which Egypt argues threatens its crucial water resources. Somalia’s sovereignty was also challenged by a recent agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, purportedly granting Ethiopia access to a port on the Red Sea. As Egypt prepares to replace these Ethiopian peacekeepers, it is acutely aware of the risks posed by potential military maneuvers from Addis Ababa in the lead-up to the withdrawal deadline. Sources suggest that Somali forces allied with Egypt have already taken positions around the supply routes utilized by Ethiopian troops to deter any last-minute attempts to bolster their numbers before the deadline. In response to Egypt’s military deployment, Ethiopia has reportedly augmented its forces by an estimated 7,000 personnel, increasing its overall troop presence in Somalia to 22,000. Ethiopian President Taye Atske Selassie has expressed concern that arms from external forces, presumably referring to Egypt, could exacerbate security vulnerabilities in Somalia and potentially reach terrorist factions such as Al Shabab. Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi countered these claims, accusing Ethiopia of obscuring its role in illicit weapon smuggling across the Somali borders, leading to increased violence involving civilians and terrorist groups. Ethiopian authorities have sought to reassure Egypt and Sudan regarding the impact of the nearly completed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Despite extensive negotiations over a decade that have failed to yield a comprehensive agreement, Ethiopia insists that its prioritization of the dam remains essential for its development. Last week, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi highlighted the vital importance of the Nile to Egypt, stating that it is “an issue that’s associated with the life and survival of Egyptians.” His government has endeavored to rally support from neighboring countries against Ethiopia’s approach to the dam dispute. Egypt’s military involvement in Somalia and strengthening ties with Eritrea underscore its commitment to exert pressure on Ethiopia to reach an accord regarding the dam.
The military dynamics in the Horn of Africa, particularly regarding the interplay between Egypt, Somalia, and Ethiopia, have been deeply influenced by longstanding geopolitical concerns over security, resource management, and territorial integrity. Egypt’s anxiety regarding the Nile dam, which is projected to diminish its water supply, has intensified its focus on neighboring countries like Somalia where it perceives an opportunity to enhance its regional influence. The commitment to counter terrorism in Somalia further complicates the military landscape as Egypt seeks to expand its presence against a backdrop of rising threats from groups like Al Shabab, which have established significant footholds in the area. The evolution of military partnerships among these nations reflects a broader strategic rivalry, exacerbating tensions in an already volatile region.
In summary, Egypt’s military buildup in Somalia ahead of Ethiopia’s troop withdrawal deadline underscores a significant strategic maneuver within the Horn of Africa. This development is driven by multiple factors, including security cooperation against terrorism, regional tensions stemming from Ethiopia’s Nile dam construction, and Egypt’s desire to augment its influence in a critical geopolitical landscape. As Egypt prepares to assume responsibility for security in Somalia, the reactions from Ethiopia, in terms of troop movements and rhetorical defenses, highlight the ongoing complexities and challenges facing the region.
Original Source: www.thenationalnews.com
