Egypt has aligned with Eritrea and Somalia in an anti-Ethiopia coalition aimed at countering perceived regional threats from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. This alliance was formalized during a recent summit in Eritrea, where a security partnership was established to enhance Somali national institutions against terrorism. This strategic move has stirred concerns about potential renewed conflicts and increased instability in the Horn of Africa, particularly in relation to the ongoing challenges posed by al-Shabab and Ethiopia’s military engagements in Somalia.
Recent developments in the Horn of Africa have raised concerns among security experts regarding the formation of a coalition perceived as hostile towards Ethiopia. Egypt has initiated a strategic alignment with Eritrea and Somalia, culminating in a recent summit in Asmara attended by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The leaders signed a security cooperation agreement aimed at bolstering Somali governmental institutions against internal and external threats and enabling the Somali National Federal Army to combat terrorism, particularly from the militant group al-Shabab. This collaborative action follows Egypt’s prior military support to Somalia and has been influenced by various political tensions surrounding Ethiopia, particularly Abiy Ahmed’s administration and its ambitions to regain access to the Red Sea through Somaliland, a region disputed by Somalia. The implications of this alliance could potentially spark renewed conflict with Ethiopia, especially considering that Egypt and Eritrea have historically been on opposing sides, with Eritrea’s troops remaining active in border conflicts. Additionally, the ongoing civil war in Sudan complicates the regional dynamics, as Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia are reportedly allied with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which support the Sudanese army. The situation remains precarious, as analysts warn that the strengthening of ties between Egypt and Somalia could inadvertently empower al-Shabab militants, creating further instability within Somalia and potentially leading to fractures within its federal structure. Given the historical context of Ethiopia’s military involvement in Somalia and its current strained relations with Eritrea and Egypt, observers caution that the evolving geopolitical alliances could have dire consequences for peace and security in the Horn of Africa.
The Horn of Africa has been a region marked by complex geopolitical dynamics, particularly involving Ethiopia, Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea. Historically, Ethiopia has faced security challenges from militant groups like al-Shabab, which poses a threat to its national stability. The relationships among these nations have been defined by competing interests, especially regarding access to resources like water from the Nile and maritime routes in the Red Sea. Recent actions by Egypt, including military support to Somalia, signal a strategic pivot against Ethiopian influence in the region, exacerbated by Ethiopia’s attempts to establish ties with Somaliland, a territory Somalia claims. The geopolitical rivalries are further complicated by external influences, such as those from Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which have vested interests in the Horn of Africa, notably during the ongoing civil conflict in Sudan.
The formation of an anti-Ethiopia alliance involving Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia highlights the increasing tensions in the Horn of Africa. This collaboration, driven by shared security concerns and geopolitical interests, presents potential risks for Ethiopia and the stability of the region. With heightened military alliances, particularly in the context of al-Shabab’s ongoing insurgency, the fragile balance of power in Somalia could be destabilized, necessitating careful observation from international and regional stakeholders. The historical context underscores the need for strategic diplomacy to avoid escalation into a wider conflict.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
