Aleppo has fallen to Syrian rebels in a rapid offensive, exposing vulnerabilities in Assad’s regime influenced by Russia’s focus on Ukraine and Israeli attacks on Iranian proxies. The shift indicates a significant change in the balance of power, suggesting a resurgence of conflict in the region as external dynamics evolve.
The rapid fall of Aleppo to Syrian rebel forces has marked a significant shift in the ongoing civil conflict, underscoring the impact of external factors stemming from regional conflicts in Ukraine and Lebanon. Following years of intense fighting between 2012 and 2016, the city had been firmly under the control of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, aided by Russian military support. However, a recent offensive from the northwest has led to a surprising and swift capture of the city by rebel groups, revealing vulnerabilities in Assad’s forces.
This shift can be attributed to a notable decrease in Russian military presence, as Moscow redirected its resources to the conflict in Ukraine, diminishing the support available to the Syrian regime. Reports indicate that the withdrawal of crucial missile systems from Syria has hindered Russia’s capability to reinforce Assad’s forces effectively.
In addition, Israel’s persistent airstrikes targeting Iranian proxies in Syria have further destabilized the balance of power. The significant degradation of these proxies has weakened the Assad regime’s military capacity, as Iran seems less willing to engage actively to support its allies. Experts suggest that the absence of a decisive Iranian intervention may signal caution regarding repercussions from further Israeli military actions.
The timing of the rebel offensive was strategically calculated, taking advantage of the current geopolitical landscape. The apparent success of the initial attacks highlights a shift in momentum that had been long anticipated but not fully realized until now. For the Middle East, this resurgence of conflict illustrates a brutal cycle of instability, as one conflict subsides while another reignites, suggesting that the challenge to regime stability is far from over.
The Syrian civil war, characterized by its brutality and complexity, has undergone significant changes since its inception in 2011. Aleppo, once a stronghold of rebel forces, fell under government control after intense fighting between 2012 and 2016. The region of Idlib, the last major opposition enclave, has remained a focal point for rebel activities. The recent resurgence of the rebels in Aleppo is linked to external conflicts, particularly Russia’s commitment to Ukraine and Israel’s military actions against Iranian-affiliated groups in Syria, which have collectively reshaped the dynamics of the Syrian conflict.
The surprising resurgence of Syrian rebels in Aleppo reflects a shifting balance of power influenced by the geopolitical complexities involving Russia and Iran. As external factors continue to destabilize the Assad regime, the future of the conflict remains uncertain. The interplay of regional conflicts, military withdrawals, and strategic maneuvering will undoubtedly play pivotal roles in the ongoing struggle for control in Syria.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
