The resurgence of the Syrian civil war presents Israel with challenging considerations regarding whether to prefer Iranian-backed Shia jihadists or Turkish-backed Sunni extremists on its border. Israel’s optimal strategy involves maintaining a weakened Assad regime to ensure regional stability while indirectly combating hostile forces. The conflict is influenced by Turkey’s ambitions, Iran’s losses, and Russia’s strategic interests, all amid a complex geopolitical backdrop.
The resurgence of the Syrian civil war raises critical questions for Israel, particularly regarding the nature of its regional adversaries. With Iranian-backed Shia jihadists and Turkish-backed Sunni extremists both posed as threats, Israel finds itself in a precarious position of preferring neither group along its border. As history reflects, Israel has often opted to remain uninvolved in such conflicts, favoring a strategy of passive observation unless its security is directly jeopardized. This detachment connects with the past sentiments expressed by Yitzhak Shamir during the Iran-Iraq War, where he suggested wishing both conflicting parties success when they weaken each other.
The recent flare-up was ignited by an offensive from an alliance of Sunni jihadists and Turkish-supported Islamists against Aleppo, marking a significant revival of hostilities that had waned. This renewed conflict is a direct fallout from the broader implications following Hamas’s brutal attack on October 7 against Israel. The aftermath of this attack opened fronts against Israel by Hezbollah and prompted extensive military operations culminating in Operation Northern Arrows, which significantly weakened the capabilities of Hezbollah and heightened the vulnerability of Iran.
The current environment allows Syrian rebels to capitalize on the weakened state of Assad’s allies, particularly with Russia engrossed in the Ukraine conflict. The timing of the rebel offensive coincides precisely with the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, signaling a strategic opportunity for the rebels.
Israel, while seeking to weaken the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis, is circumspect about Assad’s potential removal, which could precipitate chaos and instability—a condition Israel typically avoids. A weakened yet intact Syrian state could depower Assad enough not to pose an immediate threat, while ideally pushing Damascus toward the influence of moderate Sunni regimes, such as those in the Gulf incapable of siding with Iran.
Turkey’s engagement in this conflict underscores its strategic goals. President Erdogan’s interest in repatriating Syrian refugees and countering Kurdish movements drives his support for the rebels, which enhances Turkey’s bargaining position vis-à-vis a reluctant Assad, despite the various tensions that this might generate. Iran, conversely, stands to lose significant ground as its investment and influence in Syria are increasingly challenged. Tehran’s initiatives to maintain a corridor for weaponry to Hezbollah are under direct threat from this civil strife, leading to potential losses if Assad’s regime falters.
From Russia’s perspective, its intervention in the Syrian conflict remains essential to countering US influence and asserting its geopolitical heft. The Kremlin’s tactical support for Assad not only secures strategic military footholds in the Mediterranean but also supports its broader military and political objectives in the region. However, should Assad’s position further deteriorate, Russia risks undermining its own credibility as an ally capable of providing security to its partners.
In summary, the pressures from the renewing conflict in Syria reinforce a complex web of geopolitical interests involving Israel, Turkey, Iran, and Russia, each navigating a landscape fraught with challenges and shifting alliances, while Israel strives to maintain stability at its borders as it monitors the evolving situation.
The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, has been characterized by a multitude of factions with disparate ideological motives. The recent intensification of fighting has been catalyzed by the weakened state of key players such as Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia, presenting both threats and opportunities for involved nations, particularly Israel. In the context of evolving regional dynamics following Hamas’s attack on Israel, the shift in power dynamics within Syria’s internal conflict is drawing greater attention to the implications for Israeli security and broader regional stability, including potential shifts in alliances and the balance of power.
The ongoing civil war in Syria has resurfaced, prompting critical reconsideration of regional alliances and threats, particularly for Israel. With the precarious state of Assad’s allies, Israel faces a delicate situation where it must navigate between the challenges posed by Sunni and Shia extremist factions. Maintaining a stable yet weakened Syrian state emerges as a strategic necessity for Israel to ensure long-term security while avoiding the chaos a complete regime change might entail. Each involved player—Israel, Turkey, Iran, and Russia—must recalibrate their strategies in this turmoil to align with evolving geopolitical realities.
Original Source: www.jpost.com
