A recent UNCCD study reveals that over 75% of the Earth’s land has become permanently drier due to climate change, with drylands now encompassing more than 40% of global land. If greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed, projections indicate that up to five billion people could be living in drylands by 2100, leading to significant migration and social issues. The report highlights the irreversible nature of this shift and stresses the urgent need for global attention and action.
A comprehensive new study indicates that over three-quarters of Earth’s land has shifted to a permanently drier state within the last 30 years, highlighting alarming trends in global climate change. Specifically, the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) report notes that from 1990 to 2020, 77.6% of land experienced a marked increase in dryness compared to the previous three decades. In that same timeframe, the area classified as drylands expanded by approximately 4.3 million square kilometers, which is nearly one-third the size of India.
Presently, more than 40% of the Earth’s landmass, excluding Antarctica, is classified as drylands, up from 37.5% three decades prior, despite occurrences of major floods and storms. The implications of this aridity crisis could be dire, with experts predicting that by the century’s end, five billion individuals could be affected if greenhouse gas emissions are not effectively curtailed. The report warns that under high emissions scenarios, further areas, such as the Midwest United States and parts of southern Africa, are at risk of becoming drylands.
The report, titled “The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and Global Aridity Trends and Future Projections,” was introduced at COP16 in Saudi Arabia. Ibrahim Thiaw, the UNCCD Executive Secretary, affirms that this research clarifies long-standing uncertainties regarding global dry trends, stating, “For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe.” The UNCCD attributes the transition to increased aridity primarily to anthropogenic climate change, particularly due to greenhouse gas emissions from various sectors, including energy production and land use.
As the planet continues to experience warming, the report indicates that regions heavily impacted by drying include most of Europe and significant portions of the United States, Brazil, Asia, and central Africa. Notably, South Sudan and Tanzania experience the highest percentages of land shifting to drylands, while China represents the largest land area transitioning from non-drylands to drylands.
The consequences of this transformation include forced migration due to uninhabitable conditions stemming from water scarcity and declining agricultural viability. UNCCD Chief Scientist Barron Orr notes, “Now, for the first time, a UN scientific body is warning that burning fossil fuels is causing permanent drying across much of the world, too – with potentially catastrophic impacts affecting access to water.” The current trajectory underscores the urgent need for both global response and adaptation measures; without collective actions, the predictions suggest a future characterized by widespread hunger, displacement, and economic decline.
The alarming trend of increasing aridity across the globe is primarily attributed to climate change, driven by human activities that elevate greenhouse gas emissions. As temperatures rise, regions historically characterized by humid climates are transforming into drylands, with considerable impacts on agriculture, water resources, and human populations. The extension of drylands poses serious challenges to biodiversity, food security, and the livelihoods of billions, necessitating urgent international engagement and intervention strategies. The findings from the UNCCD represent a crucial step in understanding the long-term implications of climate change on Earth’s ecosystems and human societies.
In summary, the UNCCD report indicates a stark shift toward increasing aridity globally, with far-reaching consequences for human populations and ecosystems. The revelation that over 77% of Earth’s land is now drier underscores an urgent call for immediate global action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to changing environmental conditions. As experts warn of potential displacements and crises driven by this profound aridity, the need for innovative solutions and international cooperation becomes ever more critical.
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