Ethiopia and Somalia proclaim a resolution to a tense feud, which had escalated with Somalia threatening to expel Ethiopian troops crucial in combatting al-Shabab. The situation worsened with Somalia aligning militarily with Egypt and Eritrea, prompting fears of proxy conflicts. Skepticism persists regarding the durability of this claimed resolution amidst volatile regional dynamics.
In a development that has drawn both relief and skepticism, Ethiopia and Somalia have asserted that they have resolved a prolonged and perilous dispute. Tensions have escalated since June, when Somalia threatened to remove Ethiopian troops stationed on its land, integral to efforts against the jihadist group al-Shabab. By October, the situation intensified as Somalia forged a military alliance with Egypt and Eritrea, traditional adversaries of Ethiopia, while Ethiopian military leadership contemplated arming factions opposed to the Somali government. Concerns about potential proxy warfare and the risk of al-Shabab exploiting a weakened security environment in Somalia were widespread among observers.
The historical context of the feud between Ethiopia and Somalia is significant, stemming from longstanding regional rivalries and the influence of various armed groups. Somalia’s demand for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops marks a critical shift towards assertiveness in its national security policy. The emergence of military alliances amongst the Horn of Africa nations is indicative of the volatile geopolitical landscape, where factions vie for power and influence. Furthermore, the ramifications of foreign intervention and alliances have profound implications for stability in the region, heightening fears of broader conflict.
Despite the claims of a resolution, the complexities of the Ethiopian-Somali relationship and the broader geopolitical implications suggest that skepticism regarding long-term peace is warranted. The precarious nature of these alliances, combined with the presence of al-Shabab, underscores the fragility of security in the region. Therefore, while an agreement may exist on paper, the realities on the ground may yet unfold in unpredictable and potentially destabilizing ways.
Original Source: www.economist.com
