The collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria incited celebrations in Lebanon among Sunnis, leading to demands for amnesty for imprisoned Islamists from groups like Jamaah Islamiya. As Sunni activism rises, it threatens to shift the balance of power in Lebanon amidst Hezbollah’s weakened state. The political scene remains complicated by divisions within the Christian community and evolving relationships with external Sunni influences, particularly in the context of the upcoming presidential election.
The recent collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria ignited jubilant celebrations in Lebanon, particularly among Sunni populations in cities like Tripoli, Sidon, and Beirut. However, the focus shifted quickly as Sunni-led Islamist factions, chiefly Jamaah Islamiya, began advocating for the release of Sunni prisoners in Lebanon, expressing hope for similar amnesty for those incarcerated in Syrian facilities. Sheikh Ahmad Shemali led a protest demanding immediate amnesty for all jailed Islamists, pledging ongoing activism to this end.
The Sunni community in Lebanon appears revitalized, driven by the shift in power dynamics following the rise of the jihadist group Tahrir al-Sham in Syria. They are determined to regain lost prominence over the Shiite Hezbollah, which has been weakened by military confrontations with Israel and the setbacks in Syria. Despite these developments, the prospect of amnesty for prisoners faces considerable hurdles, given the current political climate dominated by Shiite factions led by Speaker Nabih Berri, who is a Hezbollah ally.
The Lebanese political landscape is markedly tumultuous. The Shiite community grapples with Hezbollah’s diminished influence, necessitating a strategy for survival amidst increasing challenges. Recent tensions manifested in a crucial meeting between General Joseph Aoun of the Lebanese Armed Forces and Hezbollah’s Wafiq Safa. Aoun, bolstered by U.S. support, is emerging as a candidate for the forthcoming presidential election. The discussions centered around compliance with a ceasefire agreement, with Aoun asserting the army’s authority to confiscate weapons from non-compliant parties, including Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, the Christian factions face internal divisions in their search for a viable presidential candidate, with figures like Jibran Bassil facing opposition from leaders of the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb Party, although none represent a substantial majority to assert dominance.
As the Sunni community contemplates its role under a neighboring Sunni regime in Syria, concerns about potential instability manifest, echoing historical anxieties surrounding sectarian unrest. The legacy of ISIS’s incursion into Lebanon reinforces this unease, prompting reflections on the implications of Sunni solidarity.
In an interesting turn, Ahmed al Sharaa, the leader of Tahrir al-Sham, expressed support for General Aoun’s presidential bid but reassured of non-interference in Lebanese affairs. He asserted, “We have no plans to interfere in Lebanon. If the Lebanese agree on Joseph Aoun as president, we will support him.” This statement suggests a current Syrian regime focus on internal consolidation rather than pursuing destabilizing actions abroad, although Lebanon may still experience short- to medium-term uncertainty.
The context of the Syrian civil war and its aftermath significantly influences the political landscape in Lebanon, particularly with the shifting dynamics among Sunni and Shiite communities. The Sunni resurgence in Lebanon is linked to the perceived decline of Hezbollah’s power post-Assad. Moreover, the relationship between Lebanon and Syria remains complicated due to historical tensions and alliances, particularly with Hezbollah’s support for the Assad regime. The Sunni Islamist response to these changes indicates a desire to reclaim political influence and address long-standing grievances within Lebanon’s justice system. The dynamics within the Christian political community also bear scrutiny, as they negotiate their role and representation amidst a polarized environment that has been heavily affected by Hezbollah’s military and political strategy.
The political landscape in Lebanon is marked by significant challenges as sectarian divides resurface in the wake of Syria’s regime change. The Sunni community is mobilizing for their interests, particularly regarding amnesty for imprisoned Islamists, complicating the already fraught relationship with Hezbollah and its allies. With potential presidential candidates emerging amidst ongoing negotiations, Lebanon faces a critical period of reevaluation of alliances and power structures that could redefine its political future in conjunction with developments across the border in Syria.
Original Source: www.jewishpress.com
