The collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria has sparked a resurgence of activism among Lebanon’s Sunni community, leading to increased demands for the release of Sunni prisoners. Sheikh Ahmad Shemali has been at the forefront of protests advocating for amnesty, reflecting a wider shift against Hezbollah in response to its waning influence. With Lebanon’s political landscape in turmoil, the upcoming presidential elections could redefine power dynamics, particularly amid external pressures from Syria.
Following the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, widespread joy and mass protests erupted in Lebanese Sunni areas, including cities like Tripoli and Sidon. Initially, this jubilation was palpable, yet it soon shifted focus as Sunni Islamist groups, specifically Jamaah Islamiya, began pressing the Lebanese government for the release of Sunni prisoners in state jails as they anticipated a similar fate for jailed Islamists in Syria. Sheikh Ahmad Shemali led a protest on December 10, demanding immediate amnesty, which he proclaimed heralded a continuing series of protests for the Sunni community, which has awakened from prolonged inactivity due to the recent upheaval in Syria.
This awakening is perceived as an attempt to reclaim Sunni supremacy, especially as Shiite Hezbollah faces diminishing influence following military setbacks against Israel and within Syria. However, granting such amnesty rests with Nabih Berri, the Shiite speaker of the Lebanese parliament, who aligns with Hezbollah. This creates a political dilemma, as granting amnesty could indicate Lebanon’s shift towards historical Syrian hegemony, now potentially via the re-empowered Sunni faction.
Within Lebanon’s broader political landscape, tensions are escalating between Shiite forces and the Lebanese Armed Forces. The recent December 6 meeting between General Joseph Aoun and Hezbollah’s Wafiq Safa underscored the high-stakes negotiations regarding the ceasefire agreement in southern Lebanon, with indications that Aoun may pursue the presidency amidst this turbulence. His firm stance regarding Hezbollah’s weapons positions him as a potential anti-Hezbollah presidential candidate in upcoming elections.
Despite internal divisions within the Christian community, efforts are underway to identify a unifying presidential candidate. The Free Patriotic Movement, led by Jibran Bassil, faces opposition from figures like Samir Geagea and Samy Gemayel, highlighting the complex dynamics within Lebanon’s political atmosphere. The Sunni community is grappling with new realities, as the rise of a Sunni regime in neighboring Syria could stir irredentist sentiments and exacerbated instability in Lebanon, provoking memories of past conflicts, such as ISIS’s incursion in Arsal.
Moreover, the influence of Syrian dynamics remains potent, as Ahmad al Sharaa, a prominent anti-Assad leader, has extended support for General Aoun, signaling a period of potential cooperation rather than interference from the new Syrian regime. While Lebanon’s internal politics remain fraught with uncertainty, the overall implications of Syria’s recent regime change will likely shape both countries’ futures, albeit with temporary local instabilities in Lebanon.
The political landscape in Lebanon is deeply intertwined with the developments in Syria, particularly following the political fallout stemming from the ousting of Bashar Assad. The Sunni community, notably in Lebanon, has historically held significant sway in Lebanese politics but has recently been challenged by Hezbollah’s growing power. The ongoing turmoil since Assad’s regime’s fall has reignited discussions around Sunni empowerment in Lebanon, particularly among Islamist factions demanding justice for imprisoned members. Understanding this backdrop is crucial to navigating the implications of these dynamics on Lebanese governance, sectarian tensions, and geopolitical stability in the region.
In conclusion, the collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria has triggered a significant shift in Lebanon, particularly within the Sunni community, which seeks to reclaim its political influence amid Hezbollah’s weakened position. The demand for amnesty for incarcerated Islamists reflects broader societal aspirations for justice and empowerment. As Lebanon approaches its next presidential elections, political maneuverings among Christians and tensions with Hezbollah may define the political future, while Syrian influences remain a crucial factor in this intricate web of regional relationships.
Original Source: www.jewishpress.com
