Argentina’s economy contracted by 2.7% year-on-year through October 2024, as reported by Indec. A 0.7% decline in economic activity in October was largely due to severe drops in fishing and construction, attributed to President Milei’s austerity measures. Despite this, some sectors showed growth, prompting a potentially optimistic view on the economic recovery as indicated by recent GDP improvements.
Recent data from Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census (Indec) revealed that the nation’s economic activity experienced a decline of 0.7% in October 2024, resulting in a total annual contraction of 2.7% over the first ten months of the year. This decline was significantly influenced by the fishing and construction sectors, which plummeted by 49.9% and 14.5%, respectively, largely due to President Javier Milei’s austerity measures that suspended all public works. Additionally, community and social services saw a reduction of 4.3%, while the manufacturing industry and wholesale and retail trade contracted by 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively.
Despite these downturns, President Milei expressed optimism, citing a substantial recovery of 3.9% from the previous quarter, although the GDP had dropped by 2.1% in that period. The Indec’s Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) has shown stability over the past six months, with five sectors noting year-over-year improvements. Among those, mining and quarrying grew by 7.4%, while agriculture, livestock, hunting, and forestry increased by 2.3%, and financial services by 1.8%. The EMAE is essential in tracking the monthly status of Argentina’s economic sectors, demonstrating potential quarterly changes in economic activity. Historical data indicates a growth of 10.3% in 2021 and 6.4% in June 2022, suggesting variability in economic performance over the years.
The economic landscape in Argentina has been heavily affected by austerity policies implemented by the current administration under President Javier Milei. The focus on reducing public expenditure, especially halting public works, has significantly impacted key sectors such as construction and fishing. The economic contraction reflects broader challenges facing Argentina, including inflation and labor market pressures. The Indec serves as a crucial source of economic data, providing insights into trends and forecasts, thus guiding policymakers and economists in addressing the nation’s economic issues. The Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) is particularly noteworthy as it permits analysts to anticipate quarterly shifts based on the performance of various productive sectors, highlighting a mix of growth and decline across different industries.
In summary, Argentina’s economy has contracted by 2.7% in the first ten months of 2024. Significant declines in fishing and construction are among the primary factors driving this contraction, exacerbated by stringent austerity measures. However, certain sectors like mining and agriculture show signs of recovery, leading President Milei to adopt a cautiously optimistic outlook regarding the end of the recession. Close examination of economic data and policies will be essential for navigating the country’s challenges ahead.
Original Source: en.mercopress.com
