Joseph Aoun was elected President of Lebanon on January 9, 2023, ending a two-year presidential vacuum. His election is expected to restore institutional stability amid ongoing economic and financial crises stemming from a 2019 collapse. Despite positive indications of international support, Lebanon must navigate substantial political, economic, and geopolitical challenges, particularly tensions with Israel and Hezbollah, while working towards necessary reforms to secure financial assistance from the IMF.
On January 9, 2023, Joseph Aoun was elected as the President of Lebanon, concluding a prolonged presidential vacuum that lasted over two years. The election took place after two rounds of voting, where Aoun received 99 votes, surpassing the two-thirds majority required by the Lebanese parliament. His election signifies a crucial step towards restoring institutional stability in Lebanon following the previous President Michel Aoun’s (unrelated to Joseph Aoun) term, which ended in October 2022, leaving the country in a state of political paralysis.
Lebanon has faced an ongoing economic and financial crisis since the collapse of its financial system in 2019, alongside a default on its external commercial public debt. The crisis has worsened due to various external shocks, including the Covid-19 pandemic and rising commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine. The political deadlock hindered essential reforms needed to secure financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), originally negotiated under the 2022 agreement. Nonetheless, following Joseph Aoun’s election, there is some optimism as international partners, notably Saudi Arabia, have expressed a willingness to support Lebanon.
Furthermore, the election occurs amidst a complex geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, particularly concerning ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Recent escalations have inflicted significant damage on the Lebanese economy, resulting in approximately USD 8.5 billion in economic and infrastructure losses, according to the World Bank. It is crucial for Lebanon to maintain the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, which, despite allegations of violations, has remained intact for the time being.
The election of President Joseph Aoun presents a positive development for Lebanon; however, the nation continues to grapple with substantial political, financial, and economic challenges. Credendo has categorized Lebanon’s short-term and medium to long-term political risk as 7/7, indicating serious risks associated with the current situation.
Lebanon has encountered significant political instability since the expiration of former President Michel Aoun’s term in October 2022. This absence of leadership triggered an extended presidential vacuum, contributing to institutional paralysis and hindering the appointment of crucial officials. The ongoing challenges stem from a catastrophic financial crisis dating back to 2019, one exacerbated by regional tensions and external shocks, demanding urgent attention and reform for recovery. Joseph Aoun’s election marks a pivotal moment in Lebanese politics against this backdrop of adversity.
The election of Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon marks a critical juncture in the nation’s political landscape, ending over two years of leadership void. While the event is welcomed amidst Lebanon’s pervasive political and economic crises, significant challenges remain, including the need for essential reforms and maintaining geopolitical stability. The nation’s future hinges on addressing these multifaceted issues effectively, with close attention required from both domestic leadership and international partners.
Original Source: credendo.com
