The recent capture of Aleppo by Syrian rebels has reignited the civil war, prompting air strikes by Syrian forces supported by Russia. This marks a significant shift in territorial control after years of stasis, indicating a potential escalation in regional conflict involving multiple foreign powers. The situation remains critical, with extensive humanitarian consequences stemming from the ongoing violence.
The Syrian military, supported by Russia, initiated air strikes on regions reclaimed by Islamist rebels amid a surprising offensive that led to the capture of Aleppo. This pivotal event has rekindled intense hostilities in the Syrian civil war and presents new geopolitical risks involving Russia and Turkey. The assault underscores the fragility of peace efforts in a conflict that has already displaced millions.
The offensive commenced on November 26, 2023, with rebels attacking from several directions. Their swift maneuver on November 29-30 resulted in significant territorial gains as government forces retreated. This shift marks the first major control change of Aleppo since 2016 when Assad’s forces, bolstered by Russian and Iranian support, prevailed against the rebels.
Along with Aleppo, rebel factions have expanded their presence into southern territories, notably in Hama province. The Syrian government has pledged retaliation, and Russia continues to execute airstrikes to support its ally. This resurgence of conflict adds to the ongoing humanitarian crisis, with casualty figures and displacement reaching catastrophic levels since the uprising against Assad began in 2011.
The attacks were spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), previously known as the Nusra Front and an affiliate of al-Qaeda until 2016. HTS, led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, dominates the Idlib area, maintaining influence even as Assad’s regime has regained ground elsewhere. Both the United States and Russia, along with Turkey and other nations, classify HTS as a terrorist organization. Additionally, another rebel coalition, backed by Turkey, has targeted areas north of Aleppo using the banner of the Syrian National Army.
The current escalation can be attributed to a shifting power dynamic in the region, influenced by the weakening of Assad’s main supporters, particularly amidst ongoing conflicts involving Hezbollah and Israel. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that it was expected rebels might exploit the vulnerable state of Assad’s allies, referring to distractions caused by the Ukraine war and other regional entanglements.
Although a previous agreement between Russia and Turkey had stabilized the northwest region, Turkish officials have expressed frustrations with Assad’s failure to negotiate with opposition forces. Turkey’s primary concern remains the influence of Kurdish groups in Syria, allied to the United States but labeled as terrorist factions by Turkey. Recent reports indicate that the Syrian National Army has successfully seized the town of Tel Rifaat from Kurdish forces.
The U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution in 2015 aimed at resolving the Syrian conflict through the establishment of a new constitution and supervised elections. However, little progress has been made toward implementing this resolution. U.N. Syria envoy Geir Pedersen emphasized that the recent escalation demonstrates a collective failure to achieve a political solution and called for serious negotiations to address the ongoing crisis.
The Syrian civil war has been an ongoing conflict since 2011, initially ignited by protests against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime during the Arab Spring. The war has resulted in significant loss of life, displacement of populations, and the involvement of various foreign powers. Up until now, the conflict has been marked by shifting alliances and territorial control, primarily divided among factions supported by foreign nations. The recent clashes in Aleppo, a strategic and symbolic city, signal a potential escalation in hostilities and shift in geopolitical dynamics in the region.
The recent territorial gains by rebel factions in Aleppo have reignited intense conflict within the Syrian civil war, demonstrating the fragility of peace efforts in the region. The involvement of external powers continues to complicate the situation, with the potential to draw in nations like Russia and Turkey. Moreover, the lack of progress in achieving a political resolution highlights the ongoing humanitarian crisis and the urgent need for substantive negotiations to find a sustainable solution to the conflict.
Original Source: www.france24.com
