Carmit Valensi recommends Israel establish conditions for withdrawing from Syria’s buffer zone, cautioning against a prolonged military presence. The EU’s move to lift sanctions on Syria under regime leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani signals increasing Western engagement. Valensi advises that Israel must stabilize the region under a moderate regime while considering collaborative agreements with local and international actors for enhanced security.
Carmit Valensi, the head of the Northern Arena program at the Institute for National Security Studies and a former IDF intelligence officer, asserts that Israel must establish specific conditions for its eventual withdrawal from the buffer zone in Syria. She warns that a prolonged presence beyond six months may lead to negative repercussions. Valensi emphasizes the need for a comprehensive Israel-Syria policy, especially in light of increasing Western normalization with Syria’s new regime under Abu Mohammed al-Julani of Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
On a related note, the European Union announced a roadmap to lift sanctions against Syria, aiming to promote a shift towards a more democratic regime influenced by Western values. This development represents significant movement towards re-establishing relations with Julani, who led a successful challenge against President Bashar al-Assad. Given Julani’s commitment to respecting the Israel-Syria 1974 armistice while requesting Israel’s withdrawal, Israel may soon face intensified pressure regarding its military presence in the region.
Following Assad’s fall, the IDF established a buffer zone along the Israel-Syrian border, citing threats from terrorist activities and connections to al-Qaeda as critical concerns. In preparation for winter conditions, the IDF has made improvements to facilities aimed at protecting soldiers in this area. Defense Minister Israel Katz favors the indefinite maintenance of this buffer zone in response to the ongoing uncertainties.
Valensi, in her recent publication, suggests that Israel should prioritize stabilizing Syria under a moderate regime that counters Iranian influence and mitigates terrorist threats against Israel. She stresses the necessity of a tailored border defense strategy that includes collaboration with the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) and proposed engagement with Turkey due to its influence over Syria’s new government.
Moreover, Valensi supports enhancing Israel’s communication with the new Syrian powers to ensure national security interests, particularly concerning the Golan Heights. She refers to past contacts between Israeli forces and Syrian rebel factions during the civil war, highlighting effective military-civilian communications to address security breaches.
To facilitate a strategic withdrawal from Syria, Valensi advises outlining the conditions that would guarantee peace and stability, including assurances against Hezbollah activities and securing minority rights in Syria. She also emphasizes the importance of establishing connections to supportive elements within Syria while considering humanitarian aid due to the region’s complex dynamics.
Lastly, she recommends the formation of an international committee that includes Israel, Turkey, the United States, and Russia to foster a stable Syrian regime and protect minorities, suggesting that Israel must merge its security imperatives with thoughtful diplomacy. This approach could enhance Israel’s regional standing and its national security in the long term.
The evolving situation in Syria following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad has led to a significant shift in the dynamics of the region. The rise of Abu Mohammed al-Julani and his regime, Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), presents both opportunities and risks for Israel. Israel’s military presence in the Golan Heights, established as a buffer zone to mitigate security threats, is now under scrutiny as Western nations begin to normalize relations with Syria. The strategic implications of this normalization compel Israel to reassess its withdrawal conditions and long-term policy towards Syria, particularly in addressing Iranian influence and regional terrorist threats.
In conclusion, the geopolitical landscape surrounding Syria demands a strategic evaluation by Israel regarding its military presence and future relations. As Western nations approach normalization with Syria’s new regime, Israel must establish clear conditions for its withdrawal that align with its national security interests. Valensi’s insights underscore the need for a comprehensive diplomacy strategy and collaboration with regional powers to navigate the emerging complexities of a post-Assad Syria.
Original Source: www.jpost.com
