Ecuador’s presidential election on February 9, led by President Daniel Noboa, is poised to address crime and economic issues, with a packed candidate field including Luisa Gonzalez. Polls indicate Noboa may need a runoff to secure victory as crime remains the top concern among voters. The election will also decide legislative control, reflecting ongoing public discontent.
Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa seeks to secure a full four-year term following his brief tenure after winning the presidency 18 months ago. The February 9 election serves as a referendum on his performance amidst rising crime and economic challenges. Noboa faces 15 opponents, particularly Luisa Gonzalez, who represents the left-wing Citizen Revolution party and previously narrowly lost to him.
Ecuador’s voting process requires a candidate to obtain over 50% of the votes or 40% with a 10-point lead to avoid a runoff. If no winner is declared, a second round will occur on April 13 with the top two candidates. This election is not limited to the presidency; all 151 seats in the National Assembly are contested.
Noboa’s term was shortened due to his predecessor Guillermo Lasso invoking the “muerte cruzada” mechanism, resulting in snap elections. Noboa was elected at age 35 and completed Lasso’s unfinished term, thereby aiming for a complete four-year term now.
Polls suggest Noboa leads but may falter at the necessary threshold, indicating a probable runoff against Gonzalez. Polls show no other candidates likely to dethrone the frontrunners, as Noboa experienced low polling prior to the 2023 elections.
Notable candidates include Jan Topic, a businessman advocating for tough crime policies, and Leonidas Iza, a leader of the Indigenous confederation seeking better rights for Indigenous peoples. Andrea Gonzalez, the former running mate of assassinated candidate Fernando Villavicencio, is also running.
Both Noboa’s ADN party and Gonzalez’s RC party are leading in National Assembly polls. With 137 existing seats in the assembly, the number will increase to 151. Noboa’s party is projected to gain significantly, enhancing its legislative influence.
Public concern is primarily focused on crime, followed by economic issues and electricity shortages. Ivan Briscoe of the International Crisis Group emphasized that insecurity is the top priority for voters, significantly outpacing other concerns.
Formerly regarded as a safe nation, Ecuador now grapples with unprecedented violence, with the murder rate hitting alarming levels. This surge in crime is attributed to increased drug trafficking, exacerbated by economic issues stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to youth recruitment into gangs.
Noboa has attempted to combat crime with proposals to formalize military involvement in public security, which has drawn criticism. Despite a slight decrease in murder rates, concerns regarding the military’s role in law enforcement abound, highlighted by incidents of violence against civilians. Critics argue that addressing crime requires comprehensive strategies addressing underlying socio-economic inequalities and corruption rather than solely militarized responses.
The current political climate in Ecuador is marked by escalating violence and crime, significantly impacting public opinion and electoral outcomes. President Noboa’s recent experience in a brief presidential term and the implications of his predecessor’s controversial actions have created a politically charged environment. The upcoming elections are critical not just for the presidency but also for the composition of the National Assembly, reflecting broader societal concerns about crime, economic stability, and governance.
The upcoming presidential election in Ecuador is pivotal as it determines not only the future leadership of the country but also reflects the populace’s response to significant social issues. President Noboa’s challenges with crime and economic distress underline the urgent need for effective governance and public safety measures. The crowded candidate field illustrates varying approaches to these concerns, while public sentiment remains heavily focused on combating crime. Overall, the election may serve as a gauge for the populace’s trust in established political frameworks to address pressing issues.
Original Source: www.aljazeera.com
