Ecuador’s election signals potential challenges for U.S. interests as leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez may win the runoff against Daniel Noboa. The election results indicate strong support for Correa’s party, raising concerns about political shifts in the region. Both candidates performed closely in the first round, and Gonzalez’s ties to Correa highlight the stakes involved for U.S.-Latin American relations.
The results of Ecuador’s February 9 election pose significant challenges for the United States and threaten the integrity of democracy in Latin America. The leftist party associated with former president Rafael Correa, an ally of Venezuela, unexpectedly performed well, positioning candidate Luisa Gonzalez to potentially win in the runoff scheduled for April 13.
Poll predictions leaned toward a comfortable victory for center-right candidate Daniel Noboa, who garnered 44.2% of the vote, closely competing with Gonzalez, who received 43.9%. Meanwhile, the third candidate, Leonidas Iza, from the indigenous Pachakutik party, attracted 5.3% of the votes, making Pachakutik’s supporters pivotal in the runoff results.
The stakes are high for the Trump administration and other Latin American nations, as a Gonzalez victory would likely shift Ecuador sharply leftward. Gonzalez is regarded as a staunch supporter of Correa and aligns with the “socialism of the 21st century” movement, which is supported by socialist regimes in Venezuela and Cuba.
Correa previously served as president from 2007 to 2017 but left Ecuador after being convicted of corruption. His longstanding animosity toward the United States influences his political legacy, characterized by actions like closing the U.S. anti-narcotics base in Manta and enacting controversial citizenship laws.
Political scientist Santiago Basabe expressed concern over Gonzalez’s chances, noting that together with Noboa, they attracted nearly 90% of the original vote. Given the third-party support from Pachakutik, Gonzalez may benefit significantly in the final election outcome, as many voters are expected to align with her campaign.
Jaime Durán Barba, a political consultant associated with Noboa, expressed surprise at the election results but remains optimistic about Noboa’s potential for re-election, stating that Pachakutik voters are driven by cultural identity rather than traditional political ideologies.
For Noboa, the immediate priority must be addressing the escalating drug-related violence in Ecuador, which has reached unprecedented homicide rates. He is also tasked with resolving the nation’s energy crisis to regain public support leading up to the runoff.
To recover politically, Noboa will need to actively engage with indigenous voters, demonstrate firm action against violence, and seek robust diplomatic support from the United States and allied nations to consolidate his position before the runoff election.
Should Correa’s candidate prevail, Ecuador may soon emerge as a substantial issue for Washington, particularly given that many citizens nostalgically recall the economic upsurge during Correa’s presidency facilitated by booming oil prices. Yet, many overlook the endemic corruption and criminality that ensued as a result of Correa’s governance.
The February 9 election results indicate a potentially significant shift in Ecuador’s political dynamics, with the possibility of Rafael Correa’s influence resurfacing through candidate Luisa Gonzalez in the upcoming runoff. This is critical not only for Ecuador but also for United States relations in the region. Noboa must prioritize addressing pressing issues to enhance his chances of remaining in office, while Gonzalez’s victory could complicate U.S. interests in Ecuador and broader Latin America.
Original Source: buenosairesherald.com
