Turkmenistan will soon start natural gas shipments to Turkey following a swap agreement with Iran, allowing gas to flow from Turkmenistan to Iran and then to Turkey. Gas flow is projected to begin on March 1, 2025, with an initial volume of 2 billion cubic meters. This strategic agreement positions Turkey as a significant gas hub for Europe while increasing Turkmenistan’s reliance on Iranian infrastructure.
Turkmenistan is poised to commence natural gas shipments to Turkey within weeks, following a long-discussed agreement finalized through a swap deal involving Iran. The agreement allows Turkmen gas to be shipped to Iran, which in turn supplies Turkey with an equivalent volume of gas. Turkmenistan’s state media reported that a conversation between the leaders of Turkmenistan and Iran confirmed the deal, aiming to enhance energy cooperation between the three countries.
As planned, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced on February 11 that gas flow is expected to begin on March 1, 2025. Although specific volumes remain undisclosed, discussions indicate an initial delivery of 2 billion cubic meters (bcm). This deal represents a significant step for Turkey as it seeks to position itself as a gas hub for Europe, a goal that Turkish officials have pursued for over two years.
Previous discussions involving Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in December 2022 were aimed at establishing a pipeline to transport Turkmen gas via Azerbaijan to Turkey. Although those negotiations did not yield a pipeline deal, they led to the exploration of alternate methods, including the current swap arrangement with Iran.
Despite this new agreement, Turkey continues to favor plans for a pipeline that could eventually increase Turkmen gas supply to Turkey up to 15 bcm. In September 2024, the Turkish ambassador to Ashgabat expressed aspirations for Turkey to import 300 bcm of Turkmen gas over a 20-year period. This arrangement benefits Turkmenistan, although it underscores the country’s increasing reliance on Iran for gas exports.
Since acquiring independence in 1991, Turkmenistan’s gas exports have primarily been directed to Russia, but that relationship has changed recently as agreements lapsed and were not renewed. Turkmenistan had previously relied on pipelines to Iran established post-Soviet Union, which have not been utilized since disputes arose in 2016.
The only other significant outlet for Turkmen gas is China, which currently purchases around 35 bcm annually. As export opportunities dwindle, Turkmenistan is increasingly compelled to pursue swap agreements with Iran to facilitate gas deliveries to other countries. This includes ongoing terms with Azerbaijan and a recent commitment to supply Iraq 10 bcm, though precise commencement dates remain unclear.
Nevertheless, the fate of this developing gas trade hinges on the maintenance of aging pipelines in both Turkmenistan and Iran, along with the stability of their bilateral relations. The Iranian regime’s continued ability to execute these agreements remains uncertain, particularly given the financial strain from supporting proxy groups abroad.
In summary, Turkmenistan is on the verge of initiating natural gas shipments to Turkey through an agreement involving Iranian pipelines. This development reflects a strategic move to bolster Turkey’s ambitions as a gas hub while simultaneously increasing Turkmenistan’s export dependence on Iran. As the plans unfold, the success of this deal will hinge on the operational status of the pipelines and the stability of regional politics.
Original Source: timesca.com
