The M23 rebellion in the DRC has escalated significantly since January 2025, leading to the fall of Goma and Bukavu with little resistance from Congolese forces. The humanitarian crisis is worsening, with vast displacements and rising casualties. Regional tensions involve countries like Rwanda and Uganda, complicating diplomatic efforts and fueling protests. The M23’s enhanced military capabilities and ambitions raise alarms over potential future conflicts in the region, prompting calls for a comprehensive national dialogue to address the fundamental issues faced by the DRC.
Since late January 2025, the M23 rebellion has advanced significantly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), following the captures of Goma and Bukavu, the capitals of North and South Kivu. Little resistance has been encountered from Congolese forces, particularly following the withdrawal of European mercenaries. Meanwhile, Burundian troops have begun to withdraw as M23 forces overrun strategic locations, causing further concern about the region’s stability.
The M23 has continued its push southward, capturing Kamanyola and making progress towards Uvira, the third largest city in the Kivus. Additionally, Ugandan troops have entered the DRC, seizing Bunia, the capital of Ituri, under the premise of combating the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), although suspicions remain regarding potential collaboration with the M23. With the exclusion of requests to directly engage with Ugandan forces, tensions persist amid the ongoing conflict.
The humanitarian crisis has deteriorated, leading to widespread displacements, with the UN estimating up to 3,000 casualties arising from the M23’s actions in Goma. Over 500,000 individuals were already displaced prior to this escalation, compounding the significant displacement figure of 4.6 million across the region. The risk of mass atrocities, combined with chronic instability from various armed groups, exacerbates the situation.
Regional organizations, including the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC), have attempted to mediate but have seen limited success due to misunderstandings and military advances by M23. Activists and analysts, along with public sentiment, highlight Rwanda and Uganda’s involvement in the conflict, which fuelled protests resulting in the burning of their embassies in Kinshasa.
M23’s rapid advancement poses questions about their enhanced military capabilities, believed to be bolstered through state support, particularly from Rwanda and Uganda. This support aligns with reports indicating former members of the Rwandan military operating within M23 ranks. Regional tensions between Burundi and Rwanda also complicate the situation, with each accusing the other of harboring rebel groups.
Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi has sought support from SADC to counter M23, though the conflict has led to significant troop losses for both sides. The limited operational capacity of SADC forces, constrained to bases under threat from the M23, raises concerns about future engagements. The persistence of such direct threats has prompted warnings of potential escalated conflict between Rwandan and South African forces.
M23 now administers territories under its control differently than in prior campaigns, suggesting a shift towards establishing governance structures while aligning itself with the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC). This coalition aims to foster a broader rebellion across the DRC with ambitions to disrupt the established Kinshasa regime. Additionally, control over lucrative mineral sources, such as coltan, further underpins M23’s military ambitions and financial footing.
Diplomatic efforts have yielded inconclusive outcomes, with gaps in communication contributing to rising tensions. Previous summits in Kenya and Tanzania failed to reach agreements, and dissatisfaction with the EAC’s handling of the crisis has led to calls for reassessment of external military involvement. The continuation of hostilities risks broader regional conflict reminiscent of past extensive wars in the Congo.
Discussions on potential future scenarios for the DRC include the M23 asserting permanent control over the Kivus, triggering a national rebellion, or leading into a prolonged civil war reminiscent of earlier internal conflicts. Any resolution will require a comprehensive approach that brings various stakeholders, including armed factions and civil society, together to address the systemic issues facing the state.
To advance stability, recommendations include establishing a multinational force to oversee a military pause, alongside a new inclusive national dialogue modeled after historical peace efforts. With lessons from past failures, the proposed Congolese National Conference must commit to principles aimed at fostering good neighborly relations and long-lasting peace in the region.
The ongoing crisis in the DRC, driven by the M23 rebellion and its complex regional dynamics, underscores the urgent need for diplomatic engagement and conflict resolution strategies. As humanitarian impacts deepen and regional tensions escalate, a comprehensive approach involving all stakeholders is crucial. Implementing a meaningful dialogue, along with assurances of international backing, may hold the key to restoring stability and addressing the DRC’s long-standing governance challenges.
Original Source: reliefweb.int
