President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló dissolved parliament in December 2023, prompting opposition outcry and threatened protests. The legitimacy of his extended term remains contested, particularly following an ECOWAS delegation’s failed mediation efforts, which he rebuffed. This situation raises questions about ECOWAS’s authority and complicates Guinea-Bissau’s political future, amid Embaló’s uncertain relationship with foreign powers like France.
In December 2019, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló won the presidential election, earning a five-year term leading up to 2025. However, in December 2023, he controversially dissolved the parliament without scheduling new elections, prompting accusations from opposition parties of constitutional violations aimed at consolidating his power. They have vowed to initiate mass protests and civil disobedience if a definitive election date is not provided.
A significant point of contention surrounds the end date of Embaló’s term. The opposition claims his mandate ends on February 27, 2025, in line with constitutional law, while the Supreme Court surprisingly extended it to September 4, 2025, a decision that has faced strong opposition backlash. The landscape is further complicated as, in September 2024, Embaló initially announced he would not seek reelection but hinted at reversing this decision after discussions with his family.
On March 3, 2025, an ECOWAS delegation was dispatched to negotiate the escalating political standoff in Guinea-Bissau, but their mission was abruptly halted when President Embaló virtually expelled them. Diplomatic sources reported that Embaló warned the mediators against intervening in what he called Guinea-Bissau’s internal matters, which led to the cancellation of further talks. Following this diplomatic snub, Embaló confirmed to French President Emmanuel Macron his intention to run for a second term in the upcoming November elections.
The ongoing silence from ECOWAS raises pertinent questions regarding its authority and effectiveness in managing the situation. Unlike its previous decisive actions in similar cases such as in The Gambia and Niger, ECOWAS’s current inaction in Guinea-Bissau presents a troubling precedent for future interventions in West Africa. An important objective must be to delineate what counts as internal affairs, thereby establishing clear guidelines for member states concerning interventions.
President Embaló has demonstrated a concerning lack of effective leadership in the current crisis, which poses risks to the stability of Guinea-Bissau and could potentially isolate him amid growing political unrest. Questions persist about the nature of his relationship with France and whether he can rely on it for support. Additionally, it may be prudent for him to seek advice from Senegal’s President Macky Sall regarding the reliability of foreign backing in such tumultuous times.
One might ponder the possibility of involving Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the esteemed AU representative focused on resolving issues across the region. Given the alarming circumstances in Guinea-Bissau, many believe his expertise in diplomacy could be crucial to navigate these turbulent waters, though the question of his attentiveness to other crises remains uncertain.
In conclusion, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló’s actions have resulted in a significant political crisis in Guinea-Bissau, raising concerns about constitutional adherence and leading to opposition mobilization. The ineffective response from ECOWAS highlights a potential shift in regional dynamics and emphasizes the need for clear guidelines about intervention. As instability looms, both Embaló’s leadership choices and his reliance on external support from countries like France will play a critical role in shaping the nation’s future and the credibility of regional organizations.
Original Source: thepoint.gm
