In Guinea-Bissau, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló’s controversial dissolution of parliament and adherence to a disputed electoral timeline have sparked intensified political dissent. Although Embaló initially indicated he would not seek re-election, he later confirmed intentions to run again. ECOWAS’s failure to intervene effectively raises questions about its role in ensuring stability in the region as the situation remains precarious.
In December 2019, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló achieved electoral victory, obtaining a five-year term that allowed him to pursue re-election in 2025. However, in December 2023, he controversially dissolved the parliament without scheduling new elections, prompting opposition parties to accuse him of intentionally delaying the electoral process to consolidate power, thereby undermining the constitutional order. In response, opposition leaders threatened widespread protests and civil disobedience unless a definitive election date is proclaimed.
Another significant issue concerns the definition of the end of Embaló’s presidential term. The opposition asserts that his term concludes on February 27, 2025, as per constitutional guidelines, whereas the Supreme Court controversially extended this period to September 4, 2025—a move met with strong opposition from rival parties. In September 2024, Embaló announced his intention to forgo a second term, yet his statements shifted, indicating he might reconsider after consulting with his family. Consequently, Guinea-Bissau’s political landscape has become more precarious, with uncertain ramifications.
On March 3, 2025, a high-level ECOWAS delegation visited Guinea-Bissau to address the prevailing political deadlock, yet the mission was abruptly terminated when President Embaló virtually expelled the team. Instead of facilitating dialogue, the delegation faced hostility, with Embaló cautioning the mediators against interfering in what he deemed “internal affairs.” The diplomatic tension culminated in wanting the ECOWAS team to withdraw, raising alarms regarding the effectiveness of regional diplomacy.
After this diplomatic setback, President Embaló affirmed to French President Emmanuel Macron his intention to seek re-election in the upcoming November elections. This announcement highlights his apparent disregard for ECOWAS’s mediation efforts while signaling a stronger preference for French influence over regional organizational intervention, thus calling into question Embaló’s alignment with international actors.
Following these developments, ECOWAS’s silence raises critical concerns about its inability to exert authority and effectively manage President Embaló’s actions. The contrast with past actions taken to address political instability in The Gambia and military issues in Niger underscores an inconsistency within the organization’s approach. The forthcoming decisions regarding Guinea-Bissau may significantly impact ECOWAS’s future role in West African peace and stability.
Embalo’s presidency, marked by a troubling lack of leadership, has led to significant political turbulence within Guinea-Bissau, heightening the risk of instability that could isolate him, even amid potential military action. The crux lies in whether Embaló has garnered substantial support from France and whether he can sustain this alliance through turbulent times. The broader implications of his choices will not only mold Guinea-Bissau’s future but will also test ECOWAS’s relevance as a guardian of regional peace.
The situation in Guinea-Bissau illustrates a critical political stalemate exacerbated by President Embaló’s actions, including the dissolution of parliament and alterations to the electoral timeline. Opposing forces are mobilizing against what they perceive as an unconstitutional power grab, while regional actors like ECOWAS face challenges in mediating the crisis effectively. Ultimately, the unfolding events will not only affect the political landscape of Guinea-Bissau but also the credibility and operational effectiveness of ECOWAS in safeguarding regional stability.
Original Source: thepoint.gm
