Hezbollah is facing a crisis characterized by significant losses and internal dissent following their recent conflicts, including the death of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. The funeral held on February 23 showcased overwhelming public support, crucial for maintaining its influence. Hezbollah’s relationship with the Shiite community is pivotal, and their future hinges on addressing disarmament and reconstruction. Despite challenges, they continue to assert dominance in Lebanon’s political landscape, impacting governmental action.
Hezbollah is currently facing a profound existential crisis, exacerbated by significant setbacks, including the loss of its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, in recent conflicts. The group has suffered substantial losses in military capability and personnel, while Israel has increased its operational freedom in Lebanon. Growing critiques from within the Shiite community highlight dissatisfaction with Hezbollah’s role during the economic turmoil that began with Lebanon’s financial collapse in 2019, now compounded by the destruction caused by ongoing hostilities.
In light of these challenges, Hezbollah required a momentous event to solidify its standing, which Nasrallah’s funeral on February 23 provided. The high turnout at the funeral demonstrated public support and deterred potential governmental actions against the organization’s arms or influence in Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s domestic strength is not solely derived from military might but is also rooted in its substantial popularity among Lebanese Shiites. The group’s performance in the May 2022 parliamentary elections, securing 356,000 votes—more than any other party—illustrates this support. Polls in early 2024 indicate that as much as 93% of Lebanese Shiites maintain support for Hezbollah, reflecting its ability to foster a broad-based appeal among its constituency.
The group has effectively utilized its model of membership, initially established in its 1985 Open Letter, which prioritizes responsiveness to the masses over territorial dominance. This approach has allowed Hezbollah to integrate itself into Lebanon’s sectarian power structure, ensuring legitimacy and influence within the political landscape.
Hezbollah’s top priorities post-war include maintaining its armed status and ensuring reconstruction funds reach its community. Following a ceasefire, new Secretary-General Naim Qassem acknowledged a ban on armed individuals south of the Litani River, yet insisted that arms control discussions must occur through Lebanese consensus. Qassem also emphasized the Lebanese government’s responsibility to secure reconstruction funding, shifting accountability and potential backlash for unmet expectations onto the state.
Narallah’s funeral served as a critical demonstration of support, with estimates of attendance ranging from 450,000 to over a million people, showcasing Hezbollah’s ability to mobilize its base. This turnout may have signaled to the Lebanese authorities that any action against Hezbollah could provoke significant public unrest, engendering a cautious approach from political leaders regarding the group’s arms and influence.
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, recognizing Hezbollah’s substantial support, has made concessions during the cabinet formation, indicating a potential alignment with the group’s interests. The upcoming legislative deadlines put pressure on Salam to navigate reconstruction while avoiding political strife, reinforcing Hezbollah’s leverage in future negotiations.
While many Shiite supporters are motivated by practical concerns such as social services and communal protection, Hezbollah has cultivated a deep emotional bond with its constituency. The large turnout at Nasrallah’s funeral sent a clear message that any attack on Hezbollah is viewed as an affront to the Shiite community as a whole.
Despite the challenges ahead, Hezbollah’s ability to rally support from its community has enabled it to maintain a significant foothold in Lebanon’s socio-political sphere, allowing it to shape the country’s future amidst ongoing instability and external pressures.
In conclusion, Hezbollah’s response to recent setbacks hinged on demonstrating robust public support, as seen during Nasrallah’s funeral. This event has not only showcased its enduring popularity among Lebanese Shiites but also reinforced its significant role within Lebanon’s political framework. Moving forward, Hezbollah must navigate critical issues concerning disarmament and reconstruction funding to maintain its influence and address community needs amidst the regional turmoil. The complex interplay of sectarian allegiance and practical governance will likely define Hezbollah’s path in the coming years.
Original Source: www.atlanticcouncil.org
