Argentina’s Health Ministry reported a decline in birth rates, with 460,902 births recorded in 2023, marking a 7% decrease from 2022. This trend reflects a global decline in fertility rates, as the total number of children per woman dropped from 2.42 in 2008 to 1.36. Experts suggest that while the aging population poses challenges, there are opportunities to enhance women’s educational and economic prospects, requiring strategic public policy initiatives.
Recently, Argentina’s Health Ministry released its annual birth statistics for 2023, revealing 460,902 births nationwide, an approximately 7% decline from the previous year. This trend has persisted for nearly two decades; for instance, in 2022, the number of live births was 495,295, marking a 6.5% decrease from 2021. The total fertility rate has notably decreased from an average of 2.42 children per mother in 2008 to 1.36 as of now.
Historically, prior to the French Revolution, women typically had around seven children. Since the 19th century, a gradual decline in birth rates has been observed across developed nations. Presently, global fertility rates remain low, particularly in developed regions, with some poorer countries, such as those in Sub-Saharan Africa, being exceptions.
Dr. Rafael Rofman, a demographic scholar and researcher at CIPPEC, noted that despite the continuous decline, particularly among adolescents—which saw a 10% drop in 2023—it presents opportunities to adapt public policies and social institutions. The expert stated that “the decline continues to be faster among adolescents” and that the decrease tends to reflect unplanned pregnancies, which can hinder educational and professional opportunities for young women.
The decline in births is also evident among women with lower educational levels, whose birth rates have dropped 67% since 2014, compared to 28% for those with higher education. Dr. Rofman explained that such trends may enhance women’s educational and employment prospects, fundamentally contributing to augmenting human capital and fostering a deeper demographic bonus that can stimulate economic growth.
This demographic shift, however, raises the concern of an aging population and potential long-term population decline. With the average age in Argentina currently around 40, this trend obliges the nation to reconsider its pension system for sustainability. “We’ve been talking about this issue for a long while and now it’s time to advance with consensus,” asserted Dr. Rofman.
Despite the declines, Dr. Rofman emphasized that population numbers are expected to increase in the upcoming decades before possibly starting to decline around 2050. If the fertility rate stabilizes, Argentina’s population could plateau between 45 and 50 million over the next 50 years, debunking fears of imminent depopulation. The expert stated, “That would be an extremely long-term and improbable scenario” if conducive policies towards childbearing and workforce productivity are enacted.
To enhance productivity, Dr. Rofman suggested improvements in parental leave, childcare, education quality, and technological advancements. He believes that Argentina’s imminent demographic challenge lies in boosting productivity, asserting, “We have to get rich before we get old.” He further noted that the fertility decline is a global phenomenon, with similar trends observed in Chile and other Latin American countries.
Dr. Lorena Bolsón, from the Universidad Austral, underscored the rapid acceleration of this demographic evolution, which has not been sufficiently anticipated. She argued for comprehensive analyses to establish effective state policies to mitigate adverse effects cause by this trend. Experts have identified various factors contributing to declining birth rates, including improved access to birth control, educational advancements, and socio-economic instability.
The decision to have fewer children correlates with women increasingly choosing to delay motherhood. Although the recent legalization of abortion in Argentina does not appear to correlate directly with the decline in births, it remains a contentious issue. Researchers project that the downward trend in birth rates will continue through 2050, while emphasizing the need for appropriate preparations for an aging society as this demographic bonus may evolve into a demographic debt if not efficiently managed.
In summary, Argentina’s declining birth rates highlight a noteworthy demographic trend. The continuing decrease is primarily influenced by global patterns of reduced fertility and shifts towards later motherhood. While challenges such as an aging population and the potential for a shrinking workforce exist, there are significant opportunities to enhance women’s education and productivity. Strategic public policies and investments will be pivotal in reaping the benefits of this demographic transition and addressing the accompanying challenges.
Original Source: www.batimes.com.ar
