Climate scientists report that climate change is intensifying beyond the cooling effects of La Niña. IMD forecasts early summer with above-average temperatures and extended heatwaves. Historical data reveals February 2024 as the hottest since 1901. Shifts in weather patterns and the likelihood of more frequent El Niño events complicate weather predictions in the near future.
Climate change is intensifying, and the cooling effects of La Niña may not suffice in the increasingly warmer future, experts indicate. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted an early summer with above-average temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. February 2024 was reported as the warmest since 1901, coupled with the fifth lowest rainfall since 2001.
While human-induced climate change is creating a ‘new normal’ characterized by warmer winters and shorter springs, scientists also highlight significant yearly weather variability. Arpita Mondal, associate professor at IIT Bombay, noted, “updates from the IMD suggest that it was an unusually dry winter,” implying a decrease in natural cooling processes associated with rainfall.
Raghu Murtugudde, an earth system scientist at IIT Bombay, discussed the global oscillation of temperature anomalies linked to jet stream fluctuations. According to Mondal, a northward shift in these winds before monsoon directly impacts heatwave characteristics, including duration and temperature levels.
El Niño and La Niña events, phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), further affect weather patterns. Vimal Mishra, chair professor at IIT Gandhinagar, explained that under El Niño conditions, warmer springs or temperatures post-winter emerge, while La Niña promotes a greater number of cooler days.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently announced the “weak” La Niña that began in December 2024 is projected to be short-lived, with a 60 percent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions forthcoming. Recent temperature data showed a significant rise above historical averages, with Copernicus Climate Change Service reporting a rise of 1.59 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels between March 2024 and February 2025.
Murtugudde commented on the state of La Niña, stating, “It’s not really a La Niña at all,” as warm anomalies have persisted in critical areas of the eastern Pacific. He noted that the unexpected weather patterns may relate to continuing record warming from previous years. Studies predict that El Niño events will increase in frequency and intensity in the years ahead.
India faced 536 heatwave days during the summer of 2024, the highest number recorded in 14 years, with the northwestern region registering its hottest June since 1901. Mishra emphasized, “The most robust, important signature is that of climate change;” meaning harsh heatwaves cannot be ignored even in ENSO-neutral conditions, which are likely this year as per WMO predictions.
The growing robustness of climate change presents significant challenges, as highlighted by the experts. The predictions of extreme heat and prolonged heatwave conditions, coupled with changing ENSO patterns, indicate that La Niña may not be effective in mitigating these effects. It is imperative to acknowledge the realities of climate change to develop strategies for coping with these new conditions.
Original Source: www.theweek.in
