Syria’s transitional authorities are struggling to maintain security amid escalating violence, particularly in Alawite regions. The aftermath of Bashar Assad’s regime has resulted in significant casualties, as the new government confronts challenges from various ethnic groups, including the Kurds and Druze. The situation is complicated by external influences, notably from Israel, as the Druze express loyalty to a united Syria despite ongoing tensions.
In a rapidly evolving Syrian landscape, the transitional authorities are confronted with an intricate web of challenges stemming from the country’s ethnic and religious diversity. Heavy clashes have erupted, particularly in the predominantly Alawite coastal regions, amidst ongoing negotiations with the Kurdish forces in the northeast and rising tensions involving the Druze communities and Israeli influence in the south.
The recent violence marks the most severe unrest following the December fall of Bashar Assad, particularly along the Mediterranean coast, where confrontations between the new government and loyalists of the former regime have resulted in significant casualties. Reports indicate over 500 deaths, including 311 Alawite civilians, amid fears of retaliatory violence against Alawites due to their association with Assad’s oppressive regime.
The Alawite minority, constituting about nine percent of Syria’s population, has historically held considerable power within the military and security sectors under the Assad rule. The lingering apprehension surrounding potential reprisals has led to a volatile environment, exacerbated by the presence of armed groups that often target Alawite villages.
Aron Lund from the Century International think tank expressed that the prevailing violence is “a bad omen.” He noted that the fledgling government, under interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, is ill-equipped to engage effectively with the disaffected Alawite community, possessing mainly repressive power without adequate community support.
Sharaa’s administration has mandated the disarmament of local armed factions, including Kurdish groups resisting integration into the new national army. However, negotiations remain stalled, and skirmishes between pro-Turkey factions and Kurdish forces persist; the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have been essential in combatting Daesh, refuse to disband as long as US military presence persists in the region.
Political analysts, such as Fabrice Balanche, suggest that the Kurds desire continued governance autonomy and would agree to civil administration reinstatement without the military elements of Al-Sharaa’s militant faction, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham. Furthermore, the Arab population in Kurdish-controlled areas is reportedly displaying growing resistance to SDF governance following Sharaa’s ascension.
In southern Syria, the Druze community—comprising three percent of the population—has largely maintained a focus on territorial defense without engaging deeply in the civil war. Recent expressions of intent to unify under a national army suggest a shift, though the Druze have yet to surrender their arms.
As culpable regional dynamics unfold, Israeli influence attempts have intensified, invoking warnings of repercussions against the Druze. Defense Minister Israel Katz cautioned against any threats to the Druze population, who also reside in neighboring regions. Nevertheless, Druze leaders have rebuffed these warnings, reaffirming their loyalty to Syria, while President Sharaa condemned Israeli interventions and called for their withdrawal from Syrian territory.
According to Charles Lister from the Middle East Institute, despite Israel’s initiatives, there appears to be a trend of the Druze moving closer to the central Damascus authority.
The security situation in Syria remains precarious as the transitional authorities grapple with ethnic and political intricacies. Amidst ongoing violence and significant loss of life, the government, led by interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, faces substantial obstacles in asserting control and building trust among diverse community factions. The loyalty of the Druze and the standing of Kurdish forces remain crucial as regional dynamics evolve, influenced by external pressures, particularly from Israel. The future stability of Syria hangs in the balance amidst these changing tides.
Original Source: www.arabnews.com
