Ecuador’s second presidential election in 2025 features incumbent Daniel Noboa and challenger Luisa González, stemming from a previous election where no candidate secured a majority. Noboa has focused on militaristic crime policies amidst an economic recession, while González plans to shift towards a post-oil economy and enhance social programs. Both candidates prioritize expanding state power for public safety, raising concerns about implications for voters.
Ecuador’s upcoming presidential election on the horizon involves a contest between incumbent President Daniel Noboa and challenger Luisa González. This election follows a prior round in February 2025 where neither candidate achieved the required 50 percent of the vote, with both Noboa and González securing roughly 44 percent. The election will indicate the direction of Ecuador’s political and economic future given the candidates’ contrasting visions.
President Daniel Noboa, the youngest in Ecuador’s history and a banana industry heir, assumed office in 2023 after former President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the National Assembly to avoid impeachment over corruption-related allegations. Once in office, Noboa faced a significant crisis as Ecuador’s murder rate surged fourfold from 2018 to 2022, prompting him to declare a state of emergency in several provinces and characterize numerous criminal gangs as terrorist entities.
Although initial policies under Noboa resulted in a 17 percent decrease in homicide rates by August 2024, the trend reversed dramatically with January 2025 marking a record month of violence, including 731 homicides. Concurrently, the economy faced a downturn triggered by an energy crisis stemming from droughts, resulting in extensive blackouts and a 1.5 percent drop in GDP year-on-year by late 2024. The poverty rate similarly rose by 2 percent during this period.
Should he win reelection, Noboa aims to intensify his crime-fighting strategies, proposing the construction of a new maximum-security prison for dangerous offenders and discussing solutions for the ongoing energy crisis while maintaining vague economic proposals that include the extension of social programs to alleviate poverty.
Challenger Luisa González, who previously faced Noboa in the 2023 election, was endorsed by former President Rafael Correa. Although Correa faces corruption charges, González has asserted she will not interfere with his legal issues. She proposes combatting crime much like Noboa, through augmented military and police operations, and promises to reinstate the Ministry of Justice to enhance rehabilitation for inmates, which was dissolved in 2018.
Economically, González aims to shift Ecuador’s reliance on oil—a resource constituting 82 percent of the country’s energy—towards a diversified economy with increased social spending, focusing on vulnerable areas. Her platform also suggests lowering the sales tax and providing tax incentives for women-led enterprises, indicating a return to the social policies seen during the Correa administration.
Despite their different economic visions, both candidates emphasize expanding governmental authority for public safety, underscoring a critical point of concern for voters and the potential impacts on the population regardless of who prevails in the election.
The 2025 presidential election in Ecuador presents a significant decision for voters between two contrasting leaders. While Daniel Noboa emphasizes firm crime policies and seeks to address a severe energy crisis, Luisa González advocates for broader social spending and a shift in economic strategy. Each candidate shares a commitment to expanding state power for public safety, raising questions about the societal implications of their proposed measures. The outcome will likely shape Ecuador’s political landscape and address pressing issues of crime and economic stability.
Original Source: reason.com
