The article discusses the escalating conflict in South Sudan between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, highlighted by recent arrests of senior officials and a UN helicopter incident. The fragile peace agreement from 2018 is under threat, with rising tensions tied to regional conflicts. South Sudan faces its first elections in December 2026 amidst these challenges.
South Sudan’s ongoing conflict poses a major threat, as regional and international entities urge the country’s leaders to mediate the escalating tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar. The latest developments include the arrest of senior government and military officials, alongside reports of increased security around Machar’s residence in Juba.
Tragically, a United Nations helicopter was shot down during a rescue mission, resulting in numerous military fatalities, with President Kiir characterizing this incident as an “assassination.” The violence erupted in February for reasons that remain ambiguous, although human rights organizations attribute it to disarmament attempts in several states.
On a recent Saturday, African Union Commission Chair Moussa Faki emphasized the necessity of ceasing hostilities, adhering to ceasefire protocols, and engaging in national dialogue. Since February, the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) have been involved in confrontations with a loose coalition known as the White Army, which the government claims is affiliated with Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO).
In response, the SSPDF has conducted significant crackdowns, leading to the arrest of deputy chief Gabriel Duop Lam, alongside fears among former opposition military officers who have sought refuge. The fragile peace accord established in 2018, which reinstated Machar, is now precariously threatened.
Moreover, despite having laid out a framework in 2018, critical elements of the peace agreement have yet to be fulfilled, including military integration and constitutional establishment.
Complicating matters further, analysts observe a possible connection between the Sudans’ turmoil and the current strife in South Sudan. The disruptions in oil supply due to ongoing conflict in Sudan significantly impact President Kiir’s ability to maintain stability. On Sunday, Kiir and Sudan’s Sovereign Council Chairman, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, addressed various bilateral security issues.
Tensions remain heightened, with accusations from Khartoum regarding Juba’s insufficient measures against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which allegedly recruit within South Sudan. Conversely, Juba maintains that the White Army affiliation with SPLM-IO should not be overlooked. Lastly, South Sudan is slated to conduct its first elections in December 2026, a significant milestone since its 2011 independence.
In summary, South Sudan is encountering a tumultuous phase marked by conflict between its leaders, widespread arrests, and an ongoing humanitarian crisis. The fragile peace agreement from 2018 is in jeopardy as authorities struggle to manage domestic unrest linked to broader regional tensions. The interrelation of the conflicts in Sudan further complicates South Sudan’s capacity to foster stability as it approaches its first elections in over a decade.
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