Approximately 10,000 Alawites have fled Syria to Lebanon due to sectarian violence. This influx raises tensions in northern Lebanon, particularly in Tripoli, heightening fears of renewed conflict between Sunni and Alawite factions. Significant casualties and an illegal arms trade further complicate the situation, with potential cross-border military actions by Syrian forces looming as a concern.
In recent days, approximately 10,000 Alawites have fled Syria, entering Lebanon to escape escalating sectarian violence. These individuals have primarily settled in northern towns, exacerbating tensions and reigniting historic conflicts, particularly in the Tripoli districts of Bab Al Tebbaneh and Jabal Mohsen. The influx heightens concerns that violence could erupt once more in this volatile region, where Sunni and Alawite factions have a history of clashes over the past 15 years.
Casualties have been staggering, with reports indicating at least 1,300 deaths, including 800 civilians, mostly Alawite, since a recent wave of violence commenced. This impact is attributed to confrontations between pro-government troops and opposing forces, accused of loyalty to the previous regime. The situation escalated following an ambush that killed two pro-government soldiers, leading to further attacks against Alawites in coastal areas.
Lebanese security sources reveal that the rising tensions could lead to explosive confrontations at any moment. Consequently, security forces have established a protective barrier around Jabal Mohsen, where violent confrontations have already occurred, indicating a fragile and precarious situation. In Tripoli, where Sunni Muslims comprise 80% of the population, and Alawites make up 6-7%, historical divides have deepened since the onset of the Syrian conflict in March 2011.
Furthermore, an influx of firearms into Lebanon following the collapse of Syria’s army has aggravated the security landscape. Reports suggest that Lebanese gun dealers have capitalized on these conditions, smuggling weapons, including inexpensive AK-47s from Syria. Despite Lebanon’s closure of several border crossings with Syria, numerous illegal routes remain operational, facilitating this illicit trade.
There is growing concern over the potential response from Syria’s pro-government factions, who might seek to pursue Alawite refugees across the border with the aid of local allies. Increasing troop movements along the border, particularly in the Bekaa valley, have raised alarms about the risks associated with this sectarian violence spilling further into Lebanon.
Given the backdrop of rising tensions, the Syrian government has intensified operations against smuggling routes along the border, particularly targeting areas where Hezbollah has strong influence. Such actions have already incited clashes between Lebanese clans and Syrian security forces, emphasizing the precarious balance of power and security in the region.
The formidable influx of Alawites into Lebanon amid rising sectarian violence in Syria has amplified existing tensions in northern Lebanon, particularly in Tripoli. With over 1,300 deaths reported in recent conflicts, the region faces an escalating risk of violence spilling over the border. The widespread availability of firearms and the mobilization of pro-government Syrian groups near the border compound these concerns. Collective fears center around potential invasions by Syrian forces and the evolving dynamics of power in this historically sectarian area.
Original Source: www.thenationalnews.com
