Ecuador is set for a decisive presidential election on April 13, 2025, with incumbent Daniel Noboa proposing foreign military assistance to tackle soaring violence tied to drug trafficking. While his administration promotes a militarized approach, experts warn against the potential consequences for national sovereignty and effectiveness. Economic challenges further complicate Noboa’s prospects, leaving the electorate seeking viable solutions to escalating crime and unrest.
Ecuador is approaching a significant second round of presidential elections on April 13, 2025, with incumbent President Daniel Noboa advocating for the inclusion of foreign military special forces to combat drug trafficking and organized crime. This proposal follows Noboa’s attempts to amend the constitution to allow foreign military bases, reflecting the dire security situation in Ecuador, which has seen a surge in violence since his election in October 2023.
In the first 50 days of 2025 alone, Ecuador experienced 1,300 homicides, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous year. Positioned between Colombia and Peru—leading cocaine producers—Ecuador has become a primary cocaine exporter to Europe. The infiltration of Mexican, Colombian, and Albanian cartels has exacerbated the situation, taking advantage of the country’s unstable institutional framework.
Concerns about security have been amplified following a takeover of a live news broadcast by armed gangs last year, prompting U.S. analysts to consider a “Plan Colombia” approach for Ecuador. This U.S. military and counternarcotics aid model successfully reduced crime in Colombia but has seen limited efficacy in curtailing drug trafficking rerouted through Ecuador.
In response to Ecuador’s combat declarations against criminal gangs, the Biden administration dispatched top officials to collaborate with Noboa. A recent bilateral agreement has granted U.S. military personnel immunities typical for diplomats, alongside a significant investment from SOUTHCOM aimed at enhancing local security capabilities.
Registered as a foreign agent, the South Florida-based Matrix Aviation Inc. aims to secure funding and implement counter-narcotics strategies under the Foreign Military Financing program for the Noboa administration. Although Defense Minister Gian Carlo Loffredo lacks formal military experience, he has sought U.S. assistance based on his counter-terrorism background.
As Noboa seeks to reinforce his electoral position, he has aligned with former President Trump, receiving support from certain U.S. lawmakers against his progressive opponent, Luisa Gonzalez. Gonzalez, a protégé of former President Rafael Correa, advocates for social policies to address crime rather than militarized responses, emphasizing the need for reforms to achieve balanced economic growth and diminished inequality.
While crime rates saw a reduction during Noboa’s tenure, substantial military interventions have met public resistance and skepticism among experts regarding their effectiveness. Attention has been drawn to the potential economic ramifications of U.S. military presence and agreements that might undermine Ecuador’s sovereignty.
Ecuador faces complex challenges, including ongoing economic downturns and geopolitical strains with both the U.S. and Russia. Noboa’s strategy hinges on leveraging foreign military support amid persistent internal conflicts and economic distress, making his prospects uncertain as the election approaches. The efficacy of past approaches remains in question, leaving citizens anxious as they await a resolution to their nation’s pressing security concerns.
In summary, President Daniel Noboa’s approach to addressing Ecuador’s escalating violence through foreign military assistance raises significant concerns regarding sovereignty, effectiveness, and public support. Despite a short-term crime reduction during his presidency, reliance on militarized strategies has proven controversial and may not yield lasting solutions. As the country faces economic struggles and a turbulent electoral climate, the upcoming elections will test Noboa’s ability to restore stability and security amid skepticism surrounding current policies.
Original Source: responsiblestatecraft.org
