The National Bureau of Statistics will unveil Nigeria’s rebased GDP in Q1 2025, shifting the base year to 2019. This rebasing aims to provide a more accurate economic depiction, impacting key metrics like GDP size and per capita income. However, concerns remain that these adjustments may not translate into real benefits for citizens facing economic challenges such as inflation and stagnant wages.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Nigeria is set to reveal the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025, representing the first revision in over ten years. This update, changing the base year from 2010 to 2019, aims to present a more accurate depiction of Nigeria’s economy by including rapidly growing sectors such as digital finance, e-commerce, and the creative industry, while also better addressing the informal sector.
The rebasing of GDP is intended to provide a clearer view of per capita income, an essential gauge of economic welfare. Nevertheless, there remain uncertainties regarding whether this adjustment will result in genuine improvements for Nigerians, particularly in light of the nation’s current economic challenges, which include increasing inflation and stagnant wages.
GDP rebasing involves updating the reference year for measuring economic activities, thereby reflecting contemporary consumption trends and contributions from various sectors. The previous rebasing in 2014 repositioned Nigeria as the largest economy in Africa, showcasing growth in sectors like telecommunications and financial services. The upcoming rebasing will reassess the economic structure, likely leading to a notable increase in GDP and impacting key economic metrics, such as the debt-to-GDP ratio and government revenue.
Statistical data from the International Monetary Fund reveals that Nigeria’s GDP per capita drastically decreased from $3,022 in 2014 to $835.49 in 2024, indicating a significant decline in economic output per individual. Despite the upcoming GDP rebasing, it is uncertain whether this will translate into real income gains for most citizens who continue to face economic hardships, such as inflation and high unemployment rates.
An increase in GDP post-rebasing may enhance the debt-to-GDP ratio, thereby presenting a seemingly more manageable public debt situation. However, this does not address the high costs associated with debt servicing. Similarly, Nigeria’s current tax-to-GDP ratio of about 10% could worsen unless enhanced tax collection measures are implemented, underscoring the necessity for structural reforms in taxation.
At a recent workshop held by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group and the NBS, technical assistant to the Statistician-General, Moses Waniko, noted that GDP rebasing would help facilitate the development of a comprehensive economic plan and enhance the trajectory for Nigeria’s economy. However, the actual economic impact remains contingent on real income growth and employment opportunities for the population.
Challenges to true income growth persist, such as significant income inequality and high levels of underemployment, especially among youths. While GDP growth may indicate a robust economy, many Nigerians may remain disenfranchised if job creation does not align with economic expansion. Additionally, inflation and currency depreciation continue to diminish the real value of earnings.
For GDP rebasing to positively influence real incomes, policymakers must prioritize enhancing wage levels, creating more employment options, and establishing effective social protection systems. Experts argue that improving infrastructure, education, and healthcare is critical in ensuring that economic benefits reach the broader population.
In conclusion, with the NBS set to announce the rebased GDP figures, it is vital for Nigerians to look beyond superficial economic numbers. Genuine improvements in livelihoods depend upon effective governmental policies that translate GDP growth into better wages and improved living standards. The focus must remain on fostering a truly inclusive economic environment that benefits all citizens rather than merely adjusting statistical calculations.
The upcoming rebased GDP figures for Nigeria present an opportunity to reflect the true size and structure of the nation’s economy. However, this adjustment must be viewed critically, as economic growth in statistical terms does not necessarily equate to improved living standards for the populace. Policymakers must address challenges such as poverty, inflation, and employment to ensure that the rebased GDP correlates with real economic benefits for ordinary Nigerians. In summary, while the rebasing may offer a more optimistic economic outlook, its effectiveness will hinge on tangible improvements in the day-to-day experiences of the citizens.
Original Source: punchng.com
