The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has reopened opportunities for political maneuvering within Lebanon, with Saudi Arabia taking the lead to exert influence and pressure the Lebanese government to curb Hezbollah’s power. Saudi Arabia’s renewed engagement comes with strict conditions for political and financial support, aligning with US strategic interests. As Lebanon grapples with these demands, the landscape towards potential normalization with Israel raises urgent concerns regarding internal stability and national sovereignty.
The recent ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has ushered in a crucial phase in Lebanon’s ongoing political crisis, following intense bombardment. While the conflict did not result in a clear military victory, the United States and its allies are eager to exploit Lebanon’s vulnerabilities to instigate political changes. Saudi Arabia has been appointed to lead this initiative due to its historical influence in Lebanon’s political landscape.
In anticipation of the ceasefire’s impact, Riyadh swiftly adjusted its foreign policy regarding Lebanon. The oversight of Lebanese affairs was transferred from the Royal Court to the Foreign Ministry, reflecting a strategy aimed at more direct diplomatic engagement. This shift marks a departure from the previous approach under top advisor Nizar al-Aloula.
The newly established Saudi diplomatic team has engaged in extensive outreach to enhance relationships with various Lebanese factions while applying pressure on significant political matters, particularly concerning the presidential election and government formation. This renewed engagement from Riyadh comes after its strategic withdrawal in 2017, wherein it forced the resignation of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri.
Since taking office on January 9, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has actively sought to mend relations with Saudi Arabia, essential for Lebanon’s recovery. His inaugural foreign visit to Riyadh emphasized this commitment, where he discussed restoring bilateral ties with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia’s renewed involvement in Lebanon entails specific conditions for its political and financial support. Riyadh demands that Lebanon take tangible steps to diminish Hezbollah’s influence, enforce international resolutions, and reclaim state authority over its territory.
Under the scrutiny of Saudi and American oversight, Lebanon must show its alignment with the Saudi-US agenda, particularly in applying pressure on Hezbollah. This encompasses tightening financial controls to restrict funding to areas affected by the recent conflict that could bolster Hezbollah’s resources.
Journalist Maysam Rizk observes that Saudi Arabia and the United States perceive Lebanon as being on probation, monitoring how the Lebanese government will manage the resistance post-war. Their aim is not only to disarm Hezbollah but to erode its national influence under the pretext of necessary reforms.
Amid Lebanon’s shifting internal dynamics and regional power rearrangements, Saudi Arabia seeks to assert its influence, particularly at the expense of Qatar. Utilizing its financial resources strategically, Riyadh aims to disrupt the political unity that arose during the conflict and redirect Lebanon’s trajectory to its advantage.
Political analyst Dr. Fouad Ibrahim argues that Saudi Arabia intends to capitalize on the outcomes of Israel’s aggression toward Lebanon and sees an opportunity to strengthen its influence amid changes in Syria. Riyadh’s strategy aligns with US efforts to support a political system that curtail Hezbollah and strengthens its allies in Lebanon.
Despite skepticism surrounding Saudi involvement, the escalating situation in Syria compels Riyadh to intensify its focus on Lebanon, ensuring that it plays a vital role in isolating Hezbollah as Lebanon recalibrates its ties with Syria.
Concerns are mounting among political observers regarding Saudi Arabia’s intentions to pressure Lebanon into normalizing relations with Israel as part of a long-term strategy. Dr. Ibrahim emphasizes that Saudi Arabia will harness its resources to compel Lebanon to accept conditional support, which could include normalization with Israel and confrontational measures against Hezbollah.
The primary target of this endeavor is Lebanon’s Sunni community, pivotal in shaping the sectarian balance. Through establishing a more favorable position for the Saudi agenda, it seeks to reshape public sentiment regarding Palestine and regional conflicts.
As Lebanese President Joseph Aoun plans a subsequent visit to Saudi Arabia after Eid al-Fitr, hopes linger for improved bilateral relations and economic support. While aspirations exist for potential concessions from Saudi Arabia, such as financial assistance and lifting travel bans, any progress hinges on Lebanon’s compliance with Riyadh’s conditions.
In conclusion, Saudi Arabia’s renewed focus on Lebanon represents a strategic shift in its foreign policy, aiming to redefine its influence in a post-war environment. The expectation is that Lebanon will align its political actions to meet Saudi demands, particularly regarding Hezbollah’s power and potential normalization with Israel. As the Lebanese government navigates this delicate balance, the implications for regional stability and internal coherence raise significant concerns. The pressures on Lebanon indicate a critical juncture where compliance with external demands or resistance will shape the broader political landscape, bearing consequences for its sovereignty and societal fabric.
Original Source: thecradle.co
