Thailand is facing serious challenges due to the trade war initiated by the U.S. under President Trump, with economic experts warning of long-term impacts. Strategies discussed include building domestic strength, effective foreign currency management, and leveraging regional trade agreements. The panel highlighted the necessity for Thailand to prepare for increased volatility in international markets and explore opportunities arising from upcoming trade policies.
Thailand is currently grappling with the complexities and potential repercussions of the trade war instigated by the United States under President Trump. Economic experts have convened to addresses the long-term implications of new U.S. trade policies. A recent panel discussion titled “Trade War 2025: How to Deal with Trump?” emphasized the vulnerability of the Thai economy amid rising tariffs and international trade barriers.
Don Nakornthap, chief of Reserve Management at the Bank of Thailand, forewarned of a potential global economic downturn reminiscent of the Great Depression if nations engage in reciprocal tariff increases. He underscored that, “No country can escape the tariffs being imposed by Trump,” which have notably affected trade dynamics with China, Canada, and Mexico. As Thailand sees an increasing trade surplus with the U.S., it braces for adverse effects from anticipated higher duties on its exports.
In the wake of the U.S. tariffs, global market volatility has surged, with reports indicating a decline in stock indices and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar. Kobsak Pootrakool, chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), emphasized the need for Thailand to prepare for extended market turbulence that could lead to long-term ramifications. He stated, “This storm will stay with us for four years,” indicating the unpredictable nature of investments.
Dr. Kirida Bhaopichitr from the Thailand Development Research Institute identified major concerns regarding the trade war, noting its effects on global economic growth, which poses challenges for Thailand’s export-driven economy. Despite the risks, she mentioned potential opportunities arising from increased market openness to U.S. imports and a growing influx of imports from China.
Industry representatives like Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), highlighted the scrutiny Thailand faces regarding its trade balance with the U.S. They urged the government to proactively engage in more consultations and negotiations with the Trump administration to mitigate the impact of trade restrictions and tariffs.
Concerns regarding production decline were raised as Thailand relies significantly on U.S. markets, which constitute 17% of its total exports. With tariffs on steel and aluminum already in place, Thailand must urgently diversify its trade partnerships. The automotive industry, which has historically been robust, is now facing severe challenges in this evolving trade landscape, with production and sales experiencing unprecedented declines.
Other constructive measures were proposed, including establishing a dedicated team for trading strategy negotiations, enhancing domestic industry protections, and fostering technological advancements to strengthen Thailand’s economic resilience. Kobsak noted that several sectors, notably semiconductor manufacturing, may fare better under current conditions.
Former senator Pisan Manawapat provided insightful recommendations for the Prime Minister to consider, emphasizing the need to comprehend Trump’s business-oriented policies fully. He encouraged proactive engagement with the U.S. through proposed agreements that would showcase the benefits Thailand can provide and an investment strategy in key U.S. states.
Moreover, Associate Professor Dr. Piti Srisangnam articulated the pressing threat that China poses to U.S. global dominance. He speculated on the potential outcomes of U.S.-China negotiations, warning of trade-related consequences for Thailand, whichever scenario unfolds, be it increased tariffs or more favorable agreements between the nations.
The ongoing trade war presents notable challenges for the Thai economy, requiring an adaptive and robust approach to mitigate risks while exploring emerging opportunities. As Thailand navigates this evolving landscape, a strategic focus on internal market strength, regional trade initiatives, and a keen understanding of U.S. foreign policy will be imperative to safeguard its economic future.
In conclusion, Thailand confronts significant challenges stemming from the trade war initiated by the U.S. under President Trump. Economic experts emphasize the importance of strategic measures to bolster domestic resilience, manage foreign capital, and leverage regional agreements. The volatility projected over the next several years underscores the urgency for Thailand’s government and businesses to engage proactively in shaping their trade strategies. As the global landscape evolves, a focus on innovation and diversification will be essential for mitigating risks and harnessing potential opportunities.
Original Source: www.nationthailand.com
