This article discusses the evolution of Syria’s political landscape from the rise of Hafez al-Assad to the current power of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) following the fall of the Assad regime. It outlines the challenges faced by the new regime, regional implications, and the critical role of US policy in shaping Syria’s future.
In 1965, British journalist Patrick Seale published “The Struggle for Syria,” positing that Syria’s weak statehood served as a battleground for regional and international power struggles. Notably, three coups occurred in Syria in 1949, leading to a brief union with Egypt as part of the United Arab Republic, which dissolved in 1961. The establishment of a strong state materialized in 1971 under Hafez al-Assad, who traded stability and regional influence for a tyrannical regime dominated by the Alawite minority.
Following Assad’s death in 2000, his son Bashar Assad succeeded him and had a mixed tenure. His lack of effective response during the Arab Spring ultimately precipitated a brutal civil war. Although Russian and Iranian military interventions in 2015 salvaged Assad’s regime, Syria struggled to recover. By December 2016, civil war hostilities subsided, yet Assad’s regime controlled merely 60 percent of the country, with others asserting authority, including Turkey and Kurdish forces.
The Assad regime’s relationship with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has been fraught. Following Assad’s reestablishment of power, he sought to quell HTS’s influence in Idlib but faced Turkish resistance over the potential for a refugee influx. After escalating assaults in late 2024, HTS’s unexpected military successes led to a swift takeover of Aleppo and ultimately Damascus, culminating in Assad’s flight to Moscow.
This political upheaval marks the end of five decades of Alawite dominance, as Joulani, HTS’s leader, established a new regime amidst uncertainty over its future direction. Joulani’s disassociation from Al-Qaeda raised questions about his legitimacy. Despite attempting to reshape his image, international acceptance has not materialized, nor has a clear political framework emerged for Syria’s governance.
Domestically, Joulani faces crucial challenges, such as unifying a fractured Syrian state and balancing relations with various ethnic and religious communities. Regionally, the collapse of Assad’s regime signifies a setback for Iran’s influence, crucial to Hezbollah and a land bridge strategy toward the Mediterranean. Current developments highlight diminishing Iranian and Russian positions in Syria, exacerbated by the recent Israel-Iran conflict.
Turkey’s relationship with HTS suggests it may seek leverage over the new regime, while regional players like Saudi Arabia aim to foster ties with this emerging governance, drawing it towards a pro-Western orientation. Additionally, Israel’s strategic interests in neutralizing radical elements and protecting its borders are evident as it takes preemptive measures against the Syrian military.
US policy remains crucial in determining Syria’s future. The Biden Administration’s engagement initiatives contrast sharply with the Trump Administration’s early disinterest and intention to withdraw US troops, primarily tasked with aiding Kurdish forces against the Islamic State. This withdrawal would critically undermine prospects for a moderate alignment of the al-Sharaa regime within the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape.
In conclusion, the struggle for Syria continues as multiple actors vie for influence within a volatile and fractured political landscape. The emergence of HTS as a potential power and the waning positions of traditional stakeholders like Iran and Russia underscore a significant shift in regional dynamics. Stabilizing Syria will require coordinated efforts and astute policymaking from the US and its allies to navigate the complex interplay of domestic and international interests.
In summary, the recent upheaval in Syria signifies a pivotal transformation in the nation’s political landscape, with the fall of the Assad regime and the rise of HTS indicating a shift in regional power dynamics. This change presents substantial challenges for the new leadership in terms of establishing governance and maintaining stability amidst ethnic divisions and external influences. The US’s role in recent developments will play a crucial role in shaping the future trajectory of Syria and determining the balance of power in the Middle East.
Original Source: www.hoover.org
