The M23 militia has recently captured key cities in the DRC, significantly altering the region’s geopolitics with Rwandan backing. This resurgence has led to a severe humanitarian crisis with millions displaced. Compounding tensions involve regional neighbors Burundi and Uganda. President Tshisekedi struggles to maintain control while seeking international support to counter Rwanda’s influence, amidst concerns of escalating conflict.
In late January and early February, the M23 militia seized Goma and Bukavu, the two paramount cities in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Backed by Rwanda, this group now dominates a territory comparable in size to Connecticut, establishing local administrations in a bid to reshape the geopolitical landscape of Africa’s Great Lakes region.
The M23 rebellion began in 2012 but was largely subdued in 2013 through international pressure on Rwanda. Officially, M23 claims to protect the Rwandophone community, particularly Tutsis in eastern Congo, yet its ambitions align closely with Rwanda’s interests. The formation of the Alliance du Fleuve Congo signifies a political strategy linked to M23, advocating for regime change in Kinshasa.
The resurgence of M23 in November 2021 stemmed from unmet agreements by the Congolese government regarding the integration of militia veterans into the national army, compounded by Rwanda’s anxiety over its regional interests. Rwanda regards the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) as a significant threat and has economic motives, as its gold export heavily relies on resources extracted from eastern DRC.
With Uganda and Burundi expanding military operations against their own insurgencies, Rwanda deemed it essential to support M23 to safeguard its interests. It has been suggested that Rwanda’s leadership desires to create a controlled buffer zone within the DRC to mitigate security threats, leading to an increased presence of Rwandan troops within Congolese territory.
The humanitarian impact of M23’s offensive has been catastrophic, displacing around three million individuals over the past year, and exacerbating public health crises. As regional tensions intensify, fears of broader conflict loom.
Concerns over potential conflict with Rwanda have escalated in Burundi, particularly following accusations hurled between the two nations regarding support for rebel factions. Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye has called for military preparedness, declaring Rwanda an adversary, while Rwanda’s motives regarding regime change in Burundi remain ambiguous.
Uganda’s relationship with Rwanda is complex, influenced by both nations’ economic interests in eastern DRC, particularly in gold exports. Uganda has provided varying degrees of support to M23, but has simultaneously bolstered its military presence in the region, indicating a territorial ambition akin to Rwanda’s.
President Felix Tshisekedi’s government is increasingly losing control over eastern DRC, marked by low military morale and retreating alliances. The recent withdrawal of Burundian forces represents a significant blow to Tshisekedi’s military strategy, raising concerns about M23’s advancing influence toward Katanga, home to vital mining operations.
With rising tensions among various ethnic groups within the DRC and public discussion of potential violence, the situation mirrors early conflicts that ravaged the nation. Amidst these dynamics, international pressure, particularly from the United States, had proven pivotal in curtailing M23’s activities in the past, yet Tshisekedi’s current attempts to garner similar support face significant challenges.
In an effort to secure military aid, the DRC government is proposing extensive access to its mineral wealth, which includes significant resources of cobalt and lithium, among others. However, skepticism surrounds these proposals as they appear vague and lack concrete coordination.
While the Biden administration has condemned Rwanda’s support for M23 and imposed limited sanctions, – including on Rwandan military figures connected to M23 – the absence of broader U.S. aid suspensions reflects a hesitance towards substantial intervention. With M23 consolidating power in eastern DRC, the urgency for a unified international response grows, as failure to act may precipitate a devastating conflict in the region.
The resurgence of the M23 militia in eastern DRC, supported by Rwanda, poses a significant challenge to regional stability and governance. The humanitarian crisis resulting from ongoing conflicts calls for urgent international attention. Countries like Burundi and Uganda are also impacted by these tensions, adding further complexity to the situation. Nevertheless, President Tshisekedi’s attempts to solicit foreign support to counter Rwandan influence face skepticism, necessitating a more robust and coordinated international response to avert a wider conflict in the Great Lakes region.
Original Source: responsiblestatecraft.org
