Hamas intends to maintain military dominance in Gaza while establishing a governance model similar to Hezbollah’s in Lebanon. Israel must prevent this to avoid a dangerous Lebanon-like situation. Reports indicate that Hamas may accept governance arrangements that enable it to retain control while simultaneously rebuilding its military capabilities, underscoring the necessity for decisive Israeli military action.
Hamas seeks to conclude the ongoing conflict while maintaining military control over Gaza, akin to Hezbollah’s influence in pre-war Lebanon. It is crucial for Israel to prevent this from occurring, despite potential Egyptian advocacy for such an outcome. The primary objective of Hamas is to secure a ceasefire to rehabilitate its military forces and solidify its political authority within the Gaza Strip.
To realize its goals, Hamas is contemplating establishing a governance model in Gaza reminiscent of Hezbollah’s control in Lebanon, wherein an internationally recognized government would merely act as a façade, while Hamas retains actual military control and political power. Such a model would enable the organization to regroup and rearm, subsequently reigniting its conflict with Israel at a strategically favorable time.
Proposals circulated in the region, particularly those from Egypt advocating for the Palestinian Authority’s governance or suggesting a regional coalition over Gaza, risk creating a perilous Lebanon-like situation. Currently, Israel’s military operations against Hamas remain incomplete. During a Cairo summit on March 4, Egyptian President Fateh El-Sisi expressed that Egypt opposes the displacement of Palestinians, supporting their right to stay on their land and endorses a ceasefire while advocating for an independent Palestinian state to manage Gaza temporarily.
Reports indicate that Egypt has outlined a roadmap for Gaza, proposing interim governance by a coalition of Arab, Muslim, and Western nations. However, the roadmap lacks critical details regarding Hamas’s exclusion from power, financing for reconstruction, and the governance structure itself. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Hamas is amenable to these arrangements, indicating its intent to retain control.
Arab media reported on February 17 that Hamas purportedly agreed to transfer governance to the Palestinian Authority under Egyptian pressure during ceasefire negotiations with Israel. However, Israeli officials have dismissed this premise. Furthermore, a report from December 2024 noted that Hamas had accepted an Egyptian proposal to establish a joint Palestinian committee for Gaza’s administration post-conflict, having held discussions with various Palestinian factions to achieve unity.
Despite these agreements, Hamas appears determined to maintain its control over Gaza, likely utilizing temporary administrations to entrench its military position further. The governance model envisaged resembles Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon, where it exercised significant military control while a nominal government existed.
Historically, Hezbollah dictated security policy in Lebanon, wielding substantial influence over government decisions while simultaneously operating a militarily robust and autonomous structure. Even as Lebanon displays signs of burgeoning sovereignty, Hezbollah has historically utilized the Lebanese government as a façade in consolidating its military power, complicating efforts to undermine its capabilities.
Hamas’s potential recreation of Hezbollah’s model in Gaza could allow it to rebuild military strength while hindering Israeli military responses due to international perceptions of sovereignty. Any Israeli attempt to neutralize the group might provoke global backlash, resulting in foreign peacekeepers resembling previous ineffective missions, such as UNIFIL in Lebanon.
Failure to address the situation poses severe consequences; Hamas could utilize the ceasefire for rearmament and military enhancement, similarly to Hezbollah’s history in Lebanon. Israel’s necessary strategic response involves re-engaging militarily in Gaza to secure the complete dismantling of Hamas’s military and political structures, ensuring no capacity for continued governance.
For sustainable peace, a long-term Israeli security presence in Gaza is essential, permitting counterterrorism operations freely to prevent rearmament by Hamas and Iranian interference. Only when these conditions are established may discussions of moderate regional autonomy commence, while ensuring Israel retains unhindered operational capabilities to thwart any emerging threats.
In summary, Hamas aims to replicate Hezbollah’s governance model in Gaza, which would allow the organization to maintain military control and weaken Israeli responses. This scenario, if realized, could lead to a situation akin to Lebanon’s precarious state of affairs. It is imperative for Israel to decisively confront Hamas and establish a sustainable military presence to ensure the complete dismantling of Hamas’s capabilities and prevent future terrorism. Only after achieving these objectives could a dialogue about moderate governance be considered, ensuring long-term regional stability.
Original Source: besacenter.org
