South Sudan faces escalating insecurity, with renewed fighting between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar’s forces threatening the fragile 2018 peace deal. Accusations of collaboration with militias and political unrest following a controversial cabinet reshuffle have compounded tensions. Economic pressures add to the volatile situation, with widespread discontent among the populace. As fears of a return to civil war grow, the prospect for peace remains bleak amid ongoing ethnic violence and political instability.

In recent weeks, insecurity in South Sudan has intensified, particularly in the states of Upper Nile, Western Equatoria, and Western Bahr el Ghazal. Increased clashes have erupted between the forces supporting President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. Following a military base attack on March 4, accusations arose against Machar and his allies for allegedly collaborating with the White Army militia, leading to several arrests among Machar’s supporters.

The ongoing tensions threaten the fragile 2018 peace deal, a power-sharing arrangement aimed at ending a civil war that resulted in over 400,000 deaths. This agreement has helped to prevent a return to widespread conflict, but the recent resurgence of violence raises fears of a breakdown in order and a potential resurgence in ethnic violence and other conflicts.

The government’s accusations against Machar came after an attack in Nasir, near the South Sudan-Ethiopia border, which intensified the already strained relations between the two leaders. The situation worsened as attempts to rescue a Dinka commander by UN forces resulted in fatalities, indicating the volatility of the atmosphere.

Political unrest also surfaced as violent protests broke out in Western Bahr el-Ghazal following President Kiir’s unilateral cabinet reshuffle, deemed by many as a soft coup. Key government officials were dismissed, leading to perceptions of power consolidation along ethnic lines, particularly favoring the Dinka group, which exacerbated ethnic tensions.

In response to the escalating unrest, Uganda deployed special forces to secure the capital, Juba, aiming to support Kiir’s administration. While this move seeks to prevent regional spillover and displacement, it may further complicate the political landscape rather than foster peace, as it aligns with the government against potential opposition.

The economic backdrop complicates the conflict further, with dire financial challenges stemming from instability in neighboring Sudan and resultant refugee crises impacting South Sudan’s economy. Significant disruptions to oil infrastructure have drastically reduced revenue, contributing to public discontent as food prices and essentials, such as bread, see steep increases.

Ethnic tensions have been amplified by the monopolization of oil revenues by President Kiir’s administration, leading to systemic exclusions of the Nuer ethnic group from resource allocation. The concentration of resources within Dinka-dominated forces has fostered communal violence and intensified opposition against the government.

As violence threatens to escalate, experts predict potential clashes over strategic areas like Malakal, a multi-ethnic city that could ignite broader conflict throughout South Sudan. Despite these tensions, many remain unsure of the level of militia support for Machar, reflecting the fluidity of local allegiances amid Gov. Kiir’s increasing militarization.

Public sentiment in South Sudan is gravitating towards disillusionment with governance and inadequate humanitarian services, as nearly 69 percent of the populace requires assistance. The crumbling 2018 peace agreement and a lack of genuine electoral processes, following multiple postponements, signal a precarious future where escalating violence may piece together a catastrophic humanitarian crisis and a battleground for greater regional conflicts.

In summary, the security situation in South Sudan continues to deteriorate, with risks escalating towards an all-out war reminiscent of the civil conflicts of the past. Renewed fighting between President Kiir’s and Vice President Machar’s factions threatens the fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement. Economic strains coupled with ethnic tensions and a lack of political stability contribute to a dire humanitarian outlook for the country, signaling potential chaos ahead unless substantial interventions occur to address these cumulative challenges.

Original Source: thesoufancenter.org