South Sudan confronts escalating violence amidst renewed clashes between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. The government’s accusations against Machar regarding militia collaboration, along with political maneuvers, threaten the fragile 2018 peace agreement. Economic challenges and ethnic tensions compound the unrest, with experts warning of further conflict and humanitarian crises. The potential for a resurgence of violence raises concerns over stability in the region.
In recent weeks, South Sudan has experienced a significant increase in insecurity, particularly in the Upper Nile, Western Equatoria, and Western Bahr el Ghazal states. Renewed clashes between government forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and the opposing Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) led by Vice President Riek Machar have intensified. This escalation follows the arrests of several military leaders allied with Machar and the encirclement of Machar’s residence by government forces, thus threatening the fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement that concluded a devastating five-year civil war.
The government accused Machar and his supporters of teaming up with the White Army— a militia predominantly made up of the Neur ethnic group—following an assault on a military base in Nasir on March 4. This incident exacerbated tensions as arrests were made and increased allegations of peace agreement violations surfaced. An attempted UN rescue mission for a captured commander ended tragically, underscoring the precarious security situation in South Sudan.
In February, violent unrest erupted in Western Bahr el-Ghazal due to President Kiir’s unilateral cabinet reshuffle, which was deemed a “soft coup” aimed at consolidating power among his Dinka supporters. Giir’s actions were viewed as undermining the power-sharing protocols stipulated by the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan, further fueling ethnic tensions amidst an unstable political landscape.
In response to the escalating situation, Uganda dispatched special forces to Juba on March 11, reflecting its long-standing involvement in South Sudan’s unrest. While this deployment aims to bolster stability in the capital, it does not address underlying tensions and may aggravate conflicts by supporting Kiir’s administration against opposition forces. Furthermore, heightened conflicts may not be contained within the capital but could escalate elsewhere in the country.
Economic pressures are compounding the conflict as South Sudan’s revenues suffer significantly due to ongoing turmoil in neighboring Sudan. The violence has disrupted crucial oil infrastructure, resulting in a fiscal crisis and increased costs for essential goods, intensifying dissatisfaction among the populace. As the conflict continues to evolve, the ability of President Kiir to maintain control is under threat, exacerbated by the economic strain fostered by ongoing regional instability.
Ethnicity has been manipulated by political elites in South Sudan, particularly concerning control over oil revenues, which constitute 90 percent of national income. The unequal distribution of these resources has heightened tensions not just between Kiir’s Dinka forces and Machar’s Nuer groups but also within the broader social fabric of the nation, perpetuating a cycle of violence.
Past conflicts have predominantly followed Dinka-Nuer lines, marked by ethnic violence and displacement. Despite peace agreements, there has been little resolution to the structural issues driving these conflicts. Experts project increasing violence, with potential battles for key cities like Malakal anticipated, which could result in widespread communal violence and further destabilization.
Discontent with governmental governance is prevalent among the populace, with a staggering 69 percent requiring humanitarian assistance. The potential collapse of the current regime and its peace agreements could lead South Sudan into chaotic militia warfare and a surge in illegal activities, alongside a possible reenactment of the proxy conflicts witnessed in Sudan. The nation’s electoral timeline remains uncertain, with previous schedules postponed, leaving citizens questioning the future of democratic engagement in South Sudan.
The situation in South Sudan has escalated alarmingly, underscoring the fragility of the 2018 peace agreement amidst renewed violence between rival factions. Economic pressures, ethnic divisions, and political manipulation have compounded the crisis, resulting in widespread suffering and a dire humanitarian landscape. Without addressing these underlying issues, the likelihood of a resurgence of conflict remains high, possibly spiraling into broader regional instability. The postponement of elections further complicates the quest for peace and governance, leaving the future of South Sudan precarious.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
