The article discusses the rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea amid Ethiopia’s internal ethnic conflicts, illustrating how Abiy Ahmed’s government may leverage nationalist sentiments to distract from domestic discontent. It warns of the catastrophic implications of another war in the Horn of Africa and highlights the need for international diplomatic efforts to avert a humanitarian crisis.
War in Ethiopia does not commence with weaponry but rather through manipulation and deception. Truth has become a casualty amidst the rampant propaganda and historical revisionism being utilized by those pursuing authority. Alarm bells should sound concerning Ethiopia’s rhetoric regarding the annexation of Eritrea’s coastline, echoing the imperial ambitions of Haile Selassie during his regime. Under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, echoes of these ambitions signal an impending conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Abiy Ahmed, though presenting himself as a reformist, reveals himself as an authoritarian leader currently challenged by Ethiopia’s deeply ingrained ethnic divisions. These divisions are not new but have perpetuated throughout Ethiopia’s history. The portrayal of ethnic fragmentation as a recent phenomenon is a misguided attribution of blame upon his predecessor, Meles Zenawi, who instituted an ethnic federalism strategy aimed at balancing power among Ethiopia’s diverse groups.
A confrontation with Eritrea may serve as a critical escape for Abiy, allowing him to consolidate his power and divert attention from internal dissent and ethnic violence. The ongoing disillusionment among his Oromo base and reliance on nationalist factions indicate a desperate attempt at maintaining political control. Therefore, the prospect of war serves to unify the fractured nation against a common external adversary, yet the Ethiopian military is not a formidable force ready for new challenges against Eritrea.
The implications of an Ethiopia-Eritrea war could destabilize the Horn of Africa further. Neighboring nations like Sudan and South Sudan are experiencing immense turmoil, exacerbated by ongoing civil conflicts. Within Ethiopia, escalating violence reflects a disintegration akin to the former Yugoslavia. While Eritrea remains a steadfast autocratic state, its non-aggressive stance could change if provoked, leading to widespread regional repercussions for ongoing conflicts.
The emphasis should be on diplomatic engagements to prevent exacerbating the existing vulnerabilities among Ethiopia’s ethnic groups. Abiy Ahmed’s willingness to take dangerous risks to retain power places Eritrea in a precarious position, especially following the siege of Tigray.
The article underscores the alarming potential for conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, driven by internal power struggles within Ethiopia’s government. Abiy Ahmed’s regime seeks to divert attention from ethnic divisions by projecting an external threat, which highlights a precarious political landscape. With southern neighbors in turmoil and a militarized response possible from Eritrea, international diplomacy is essential to mitigate impending crises. Urgent engagement is critical, as the situation balances on a knife’s edge between regional stability and chaos.
Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu
