Iran is confronting numerous regional challenges, including setbacks for Hamas and Hezbollah, and the collapse of Assad’s government. While many analysts perceive these developments as signs of Iran’s vulnerability, Tehran regards them as temporary setbacks. The Islamic Republic has initiated limited domestic reforms to bolster public support and aims to maintain internal cohesion to withstand external pressures, especially from the U.S. under a potential Trump presidency.
Iran has encountered significant challenges over the past year, with Hamas and Hezbollah, its regional allies, experiencing setbacks against Israel. Additionally, the unexpected collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria and the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency indicate a revival of pressures on Tehran’s economy. Many U.S. analysts and officials suggest that these circumstances signify a strategic defeat for the Islamic Republic, which is perceived as being more vulnerable than it has been for decades.
Contrastingly, Iranian leadership perceives these external obstacles as temporary rather than indicative of defeat. Tehran believes that although Hamas and Hezbollah suffered losses, they have maintained their status as guerrilla movements, with local support remaining robust. Moreover, Iranian-aligned Houthis in Yemen continue to assert their commitment to the Palestinian cause, thus contributing to Tehran’s resistance strategy against Israel.
Recognizing the diminished strength of its alliance network post-October 7 attacks, Iran has initiated limited domestic reforms to enhance public support amid rising discontent. These efforts include relaxing restrictions on women’s dress codes and social media, which enable broader public discourse around critical issues. By fostering a degree of trust among the populace, the Islamic Republic aims to fortify itself against external pressures, particularly with the potential re-emergence of aggressive U.S. policies under Trump.
While Israel celebrates its tactical victories over Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran remains skeptical about the long-term impacts on these groups. Iranian officials believe that the losses faced by Hamas and Hezbollah could ultimately reinforce their resolve against Israel. However, the abrupt fall of Assad’s regime has heightened unease in Iran, as historical parallels evoke fears of a similar fate should public trust continue to erode.
Iranian officials acknowledge a growing deficit in social capital, linking this decline to pervasive repression and poor governance. In response, the government has suspended the implementation of a controversial veiling law and allowed for more open discussions in media about internal and foreign policy issues. This approach aims to alleviate public frustration while maintaining regime control.
Iran’s leadership hopes that these domestic reforms will cultivate an environment conducive to addressing foreign policy challenges effectively. They believe that fostering unity among diverse political factions can strengthen bargaining positions, especially in negotiations concerning the nuclear program. The Islamic Republic recognizes that any internal dissent could embolden adversaries, particularly in the face of renewed U.S. pressures.
As the Iranian government positions itself against potential U.S. actions, it intends to preserve domestic cohesion by managing societal sentiments through limited reforms. These calculated concessions are designed to prevent unrest from escalating while reinforcing the narrative of a sovereign nation resisting external coercion. Tehran is poised to sustain its longstanding principled stance without deviating from its strategic objectives.
In summary, despite Iran facing multifaceted challenges and experiencing significant regional setbacks, its leadership views these obstacles as temporary. By implementing measured social reforms and fostering public discourse, the Islamic Republic aims to strengthen domestic support and withstand external pressures, particularly from the United States. The regime’s focus remains on consolidating power and maintaining its core strategies in foreign policy, all while navigating the intricate balance between internal and external challenges.
Original Source: www.foreignaffairs.com
