The Ahmed government’s failure to uphold the 2018 peace agreement with the ONLF has rekindled tensions in Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State, risking a return to violence. ONLF leadership warns of renewed insurgency due to ongoing grievances of marginalization and political repression. Ethiopia must implement concrete reforms and ensure resource equity to maintain stability and avoid conflict escalation.
The Ethiopian Somali Regional State faces grave threats of renewed armed conflict as the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) contemplates resuming insurgency due to unmet promises from the 2018 peace agreement. ONLF Chairman Abdirahman Sheikh Mahdi warns that deepening tensions and violations of the agreement have eroded trust between the ONLF and the federal government, which has restricted the group’s political autonomy and aggravated local grievances amid political and economic impoverishment in the region.
The ONLF was founded in 1984 to address the systematic marginalization and oppression experienced by Somalis in Ethiopia, particularly regarding access to the Ogaden Basin’s resources. Despite holding significant natural gas reserves, the Somali region remains impoverished, as the federal government’s counterinsurgency policies have historically included severe repression tactics against local opposition. Human rights organizations have documented numerous atrocities linked to these policies, emphasizing the need for accountability.
The 2018 Asmara peace deal was intended to integrate ONLF members into state structures and recognize the group’s political legitimacy. However, the lack of meaningful federal engagement and commitment to political inclusion has reignited ONLF grievances. Centralized governance under the Prosperity Party has curtailed regional autonomy, with the current administration facing accusations of corruption that further undermine public trust.
The Ethiopian government’s efforts to co-opt the ONLF, including attempts to create a splinter group and delegitimize its leadership, have largely failed. Instead, the ONLF has garnered grassroots support, illustrated by youth-led movements advocating for accountability and transparency. The group’s relationship with the diaspora has been instrumental in mobilizing resources and global advocacy for their cause, which is critical as local frustrations escalate.
The ONLF recently issued a warning regarding deals made by external entities to exploit regional resources without local consent, recalling past violent confrontations with foreign actors. While their military capacity has diminished, the ONLF may adopt a hybrid strategy of grassroots mobilization paired with strategic operations against government interests. This evolution poses a distinct threat to regional stability as it capitalizes on governmental neglect and systemic instability.
To mitigate further conflict, the Ethiopian government must take definitive steps to restore confidence in the 2018 peace agreement. Promises of political inclusion, accountability for corruption, and the enforcement of regional autonomy are essential. International oversight from entities like the African Union is also crucial for sustaining peace.
The ongoing volatility in Ethiopia is at a pivotal turning point, as continued neglect could escalate tensions resulting in interethnic strife and disruptions to vital economic links. The ONLF’s warning illustrates the urgency for the federal government to dismantle exclusionary policies and foster opportunities for reconciliation between diverse ethnic groups.
The evolving situation in Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State underscores the urgent need for the federal government to revive the 2018 peace agreement with substantive actions. By addressing the grievances of the ONLF and ensuring equitable resource management and political inclusion, Ethiopia may prevent a resurgence of armed conflict. The ONLF’s potential shift towards asymmetric warfare indicates a precarious road ahead, necessitating immediate governmental reforms and international support to stabilize the region. The choice between dialogue and disintegration remains critical for Ethiopia’s future and its diverse populations.
Original Source: addisstandard.com
