Ethiopia faces escalating tensions in Tigray, just over two years since the peace accords. Societal unrest, economic challenges, and political divisions are prevalent. Observers warn of a potential return to war amid increased regional instability influenced by foreign interests from Middle Eastern powers.
In the wake of the Ethiopia-Tigray peace accords, tensions in Tigray are rising, with fears of renewed conflict looming just over two years since the agreements were made. While the peace accord initially quelled hostilities, many Tigray residents remain displaced, and economic challenges are exacerbating societal anxiety. “People are worried,” notes Kiflom Abraha, a concerned resident of Mekelle, highlighting the increased cost of living and chaos at local banks as individuals struggle to withdraw funds.
Challenges have surfaced following the Pretoria Agreement; civil society is disturbed by emerging rifts among Tigray’s leaders. Nigisti Garede, head of the Tigray Teachers’ Association, remarked, “After the Pretoria Agreement, there was peace, but with many challenges.” Such divisions have created unrest and uncertainty, as law enforcement remains inadequate, leaving communities vulnerable to fear and instability.
Tigray is now experiencing a split among its political elite as key figures vie for power. Getachew Reda has been sidelined as military leaders align with Debretsion Gebremichael, the leader of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Martin Plaut, a London-based analyst, has observed, “The TPLF had been very united for many, many years. Now they are completely and utterly split.”
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s tenure has seen attempts at democratization, but his approach has led to a deteriorating relationship with Tigray’s elite. Although he received the Nobel Peace Prize for reconciliation efforts with Eritrea in 2019, his strategies against established Tigray powers have caused significant backlash. Plaut asserts, “This was something that was agreed on by both Prime Minister Abiy and the Eritrean leader,” yet the military objectives have not been met, leaving both sides frustrated.
Alarmingly, escalating hostilities appear imminent, according to political analysts and leaders. Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, Vice President of the Tigray Interim Administration, indicated that war “seems inevitable” and called for negotiation efforts. With neighboring Eritrea reportedly preparing for conflict, the region confronts a precarious situation, as multiple crises, including the war in Sudan, persist.
Moreover, Middle Eastern interests heavily influence regional stability. Plaut emphasizes that the ambitions of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are critical, noting that while the former supports Ethiopia, it remains cautious of UAE ambitions that may draw support toward Eritrea. He warns that shifting allegiances complicate predictions about future developments in this already volatile landscape.
The situation in Tigray, Ethiopia, reflects heightened tensions and potential conflict despite previous peace accords. The divisions among Tigrayan elites and the socioeconomic struggles of the populace contribute to a precarious environment. Regional dynamics and external influences further complicate stability, underscoring the need for robust political dialogue and effective governance in the face of looming crises. The developments in Tigray warrant ongoing attention as the region navigates these profound challenges.
Original Source: www.dw.com
