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Understanding the Collapse of the Gaza Ceasefire and US Airstrikes in Yemen

The ceasefire in Gaza, initially brokered by Donald Trump, has collapsed following Israeli airstrikes after negotiations with Hamas failed. Concurrently, the US has launched airstrikes in Yemen against Houthi rebels, seen as a strategic message to Iran. Experts observe that Israel lacks a long-term plan for Gaza, while Trump’s military actions may bolster his public image amid domestic challenges. Iran’s muted response to US aggression complicates negotiations in light of its ongoing economic struggles.

In recent weeks, global attention shifted from Ukraine to Gaza, where a ceasefire negotiated with the involvement of former President Donald Trump has unraveled. After negotiations with Hamas collapsed, Israel abruptly halted humanitarian aid to Gaza in early March, subsequently cutting off power and launching significant airstrikes, resulting in over 400 fatalities as of March 18.

In reaction to attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, the United States has initiated airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels. This military action is interpreted as a warning to Iran’s leadership from Trump, who is under pressure to negotiate a fresh nuclear deal following the US’s withdrawal from the 2013 agreement in 2018.

Scott Lucas, a Middle East scholar at University College Dublin, indicates that the recent Israeli airstrikes mark the definitive end of an interim ceasefire in Gaza. The first phase of this ceasefire concluded on March 1, following an exchange of hostages. With intense pressure from hard-right factions and hostage families, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu abandoned hopes for a second phase, ultimately opting for renewed military action.

Currently, there is no comprehensive long-term strategy for Gaza from Israel. Netanyahu is primarily focused on the retrieval of hostages to alleviate his political challenges, as the ongoing conflict continues to escalate. Meanwhile, military operations intensifying in the West Bank signal the potential for expanding Israeli settlements, effectively altering the political landscape and resembling a form of annexation.

Trump perceived the initial Gaza ceasefire as a personal achievement. However, the breakdown of peace talks has shifted his focus toward criticizing Hamas. He must navigate this situation while maintaining his self-image as a peacemaker, even as he resorts to aggressive military postures.

Regarding the airstrikes in Yemen, Trump’s strategy appears to resonate with American public sentiment, portraying himself as a decisive leader. The airstrikes aim to exert pressure on Iran while also offering support to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as bolstering allied efforts against Houthi attacks in the region.

Iran’s response to these provocations has been unexpectedly muted, largely due to domestic challenges compounding its regional weakening. Faced with severe economic distress and an unstable political landscape, Iran is cautious about escalating military responses. This situation complicates Iran’s capacity to engage effectively in negotiations regarding its nuclear program.

Advisers in Trump’s administration may believe military actions in Yemen could compel Iran back to the negotiating table. However, Iranian leaders, particularly Ayatollah Khamenei, have dismissed such suggestions, perceiving American threats as deceptive and untrustworthy. Historical context suggests Iran’s past negotiations came during periods of severe economic pressure, contrasting sharply with the current US strategy predicated on military aggression, which many analysts view as ineffective.

The collapse of the Gaza ceasefire represents a troubling escalation in the longstanding conflict, fueled by domestic political pressures within Israel and stagnant negotiations with Hamas. Simultaneously, US airstrikes in Yemen serve as both a strategic maneuver against Iranian influence and a domestic political statement from Trump. Iran’s response remains muted due to internal crises, complicating the prospect of renewing nuclear negotiations. An apt understanding of these dynamics is crucial for any resolution in the region.

Original Source: theconversation.com

Samir Khan

Samir Khan is a well-respected journalist with 18 years of experience in feature writing and political analysis. After graduating from the London School of Economics, he began his career covering issues related to governance and societal challenges, both in his home country and abroad. Samir is recognized for his investigative prowess and his ability to weave intricate narratives that shed light on complex political landscapes.

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