The arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte by the ICC has intensified the political stakes for the May midterm elections. Facing pressure amidst a rivalry with the Marcos family, Duterte’s political clan is motivated to secure victories, while the administration wields significant advantages. The evolving dynamics highlight ongoing tensions, public sentiment towards Duterte’s legacy, and critical implications for future elections.
The arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte on a warrant from the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity has intensified the political landscape as the May midterm elections approach. This development, occurring just before the polls and following the impeachment of his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, adds complexity to the ongoing rivalry between the Duterte and Marcos families, which had once collaborated politically.
Analysts project that the heightened tensions between these influential political families will shape the upcoming elections. Jean Franco, a political analyst from the University of the Philippines, suggests that the Dutertes will be highly motivated to secure election victories despite the Marcos administration’s resources and support of multiple senatorial candidates. The political maneuvering around these elections is indicative of a larger power struggle fueled by their historical alliance, which has now frayed amid pressures regarding the ICC investigation into Duterte’s administration.
The Dutertes are targeting key positions in their Davao City stronghold, while President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. continues to consolidate power and resources in preparation for the elections. Sara Duterte is not only facing impeachment for alleged high crimes but is also seen as a strong contender for the 2028 presidential elections. Analysts predict that any potential political missteps could jeopardize her candidacy.
Some analysts opine that tensions may escalate to unrest or rebellion against the Marcos administration initiated by the Dutertes should their political survival be threatened. Nonetheless, military sources reflect unity despite concerns that Duterte’s arrest has caused division within their ranks. The potential repercussions of the ICC proceedings create uncertainty for Duterte loyalists, particularly Senators Christopher “Bong” Go and Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, who are seeking reelection.
Election candidates are currently observing public sentiment towards Duterte’s arrest, indicating a cautious approach to their political campaigning. While Duterte remains historically popular, public opinion regarding his drug war has turned unfavorable over time. Recent polls from Social Weather Stations indicate a significant public support for the ICC investigation, suggesting potential ramifications for candidates aligned with him.
Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential elections, the political climate remains unpredictable. Risks, including Sara Duterte’s upcoming impeachment trial and potential legal challenges, cast a shadow over her aspirations. Analysts caution that her strong approval ratings may not guarantee political success in light of these significant challenges.
In conclusion, the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte has significantly altered the stakes of the May midterm elections, highlighting the intense rivalries within Philippine politics. The political landscape is marked by the increasing tension between the Duterte and Marcos families amidst ongoing legal challenges and public sentiment towards Duterte’s controversial policies. As the elections draw nearer, the strategies of candidates are likely to be heavily influenced by the evolving political dynamics surrounding Duterte’s arrest and the implications for their prospects in the electoral battle.
Original Source: www.benarnews.org
