South Sudan faces escalating violence and political tensions, particularly in Upper Nile State, raising fears of renewed civil war. With Ugandan military intervention and significant militia activity from the White Army, historical grievances between the Nuer and Dinka communities are resurfacing. Effective dialogue, demobilization, and international intervention are crucial to avert further conflict and promote stability.
The current political tensions and escalating violence in Upper Nile State, South Sudan, are threatening a return to civil war. Following a request from the South Sudanese government, Uganda has deployed troops and conducted aerial bombardments, prompting concerns from opposition groups who have since withdrawn from negotiations regarding a joint military system. These developments jeopardize the 2018 power-sharing agreement between President Salva Kiir and First Vice-President Riek Machar, which had ended a devastating five-year civil war.
In early March 2025, the White Army, a militia representing the Nuer community, attacked South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) in Nasir County. This outbreak of violence has resulted in nearly 50 fatalities and numerous injuries. Claiming self-defense, the White Army’s actions highlight ongoing tensions between the Nuer and Dinka communities. The government’s response, inclusive of aerial bombardments and arrests of opposition figures, has further escalated the situation.
The historical context is crucial in understanding these dynamics, particularly the origins of the White Army during the 1990s. The group has remained independent of political factions, complicating efforts to unify militias under Machar’s command. Recent violence can be attributed to provocations rather than a coordinated political strategy, differing from previous uprisings driven by entrenched animosities between ethnic communities.
Unlike the civil war of 2013, which saw extensive violence in Nasir as government troops targeted the Nuer population, recent clashes are rooted in specific incidents. For example, a February 2025 skirmish ignited tensions when soldiers collecting firewood were attacked, resulting in casualties and subsequent military responses. This series of events culminated in the White Army capturing significant military positions in Nasir.
The government’s attempts to blame opposition leaders for the unrest, including the arrest of key figures, appear to be opportunistic and do not address the underlying issues. Genuine efforts toward stability should focus on dialogue and demobilization, with the government refraining from indiscriminate violent reprisals.
Internationally, responses have primarily involved condemnations without effective actions. The United Nations mission has called for restraint but has not sufficiently recognized the complexity of the White Army’s mobilization. Clear denunciations of the government’s actions are essential for promoting de-escalation and addressing the grievances that fuel the conflict.
To prevent a catastrophic return to civil war in South Sudan, it is essential for the government to engage in open dialogue, halt arbitrary arrests, and respect community dynamics. The international community must enhance its involvement, advocating for political solutions that address the root causes of tensions rather than simply condemning violence. Collaborative efforts can pave the way for stability during the forthcoming rainy season, a crucial period for confidence-building measures.
Original Source: theconversation.com
