As Sudan’s civil war approaches its second anniversary, the situation worsens, affecting 30 million people and causing extensive humanitarian crises and economic downturns. Historical context reveals deep-seated conflicts leading to the current instability, with potential partition posing risks regionally. International responses remain cautious as local factions pursue their agendas, emphasizing the necessity for urgent global intervention.
As Sudan nears the second anniversary of its civil war, the situation continues to deteriorate, risking a divisive outcome for the nation. The conflict, now deemed the world’s most severe humanitarian crisis, has impacted 30 million people, with over 14 million displaced, including nearly 3.5 million seeking refuge in neighboring countries. Economic losses are severe, with expectations of a 48% decline in GDP by 2025, alongside casualty figures believed to exceed 20,000.
Sudan’s history of civil strife is marked by 15 military coups and two prior civil wars since its 1956 independence. The death toll from these conflicts has surpassed 1.5 million, leading to South Sudan’s secession in 2011. Ongoing violence in Darfur by the Janjaweed militia against local populations has resulted in numerous casualties and displacement over the past two decades.
The current crisis traces back to the autocratic 30-year regime of Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who was ousted in April 2019 following widespread protests. Following his removal, an attempted transition to a civilian-led government faltered, culminating in a military coup in October 2021, which reinstated military power under Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Concurrently, tensions escalated with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, intensifying conflict between these factions.
Repeated attempts at peace have failed, including ceasefires supported by various international arenas. The SAF recently gained momentum against the RSF, controlling parts of the capital and other strategic regions, while the RSF maintains territory in Darfur and beyond. The potential for partition looms, as both factions pursue their own governance structures and agendas, demonstrating ambitions beyond merely establishing stability.
The military and geopolitical dynamics indicate a potential de facto partition of Sudan, with both sides crafting strategies to appeal to various stakeholders. The RSF has proposed a ‘New Sudan’ framework while the SAF aims to establish a transitional government. However, neither faction’s intentions reflect a genuine commitment to the welfare of the Sudanese populace.
International responses have been cautious, with the UN Security Council and the African Union raising alarms about the risks associated with the formation of parallel governments. Concerns revolve around the humanitarian implications and the destabilization that could arise from such a division, especially given Sudan’s neighboring fragile states. The creation of a separate RSF-led state may exacerbate instability and humanitarian crises across borders.
The global community’s engagement with Sudan’s crisis is evolving, complicated by its lower prioritization compared to other international issues. Ongoing support dynamics between regional powers further complicate the landscape, with Egypt and Turkey backing the SAF, while the UAE appears inclined toward the RSF. The turbulent regional context, rife with ongoing conflicts, poses additional threats to Sudan’s future stability.
Some experts predict an east-west division may offer a resolution to the civil war, allowing for localized governance and a focus on reconstruction. However, the implications of such a partition, informed by the bloody legacy of the past two years, render this outlook overly optimistic and founded upon fragile hopes rather than solid evidence.
In summary, Sudan’s civil war has devolved into a severe humanitarian crisis with far-reaching repercussions both domestically and regionally. The entrenched positions of the military factions, alongside failed peace initiatives and the potential partitioning of the nation, underscore the urgency of reassessing Sudan’s governance and international support. The ramifications of these conflicts extend beyond Sudan’s borders, impacting neighboring nations and global stability. Therefore, continued attention from the international community is paramount to prevent further deterioration and pursue a meaningful resolution to the ongoing crisis.
Original Source: www.ndtv.com
