Ethiopia and Eritrea’s historically tumultuous relationship is on the verge of renewed conflict due to unresolved issues from past agreements. The peace accord of 2018, celebrated initially, faced challenges, particularly with the Tigray war, affecting regional stability. New tensions arise as both nations navigate geopolitical dynamics, highlighting the need for ongoing international engagement to prevent further escalation.
Ethiopia and Eritrea have a history of strained relations, characterized by a brief alliance lacking genuine cooperation. Following Eritrea’s independence in 1993, hopes for stable relations quickly faded due to the border war that erupted in 1998, leading to a devastating conflict. The 2000 Algiers Peace Agreement, intended to ensure peace, was undermined by Ethiopia’s non-compliance with border rulings, resulting in a long-lasting hostility between the two nations.
The diplomatic engagement shifted dramatically in July 2018 when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki initiated a peace accord, ceasing mutual hostilities and resuming diplomatic relations. This truce garnered international acclaim, contributing to Abiy Ahmed’s Nobel Peace Prize. However, the agreement faced criticism for its lack of inclusivity and transparency, which rendered the peace fragile and unpredictable.
The aftermath of the 2018 accord adversely intensified tensions in Ethiopia, particularly with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which perceived the peace as a threat. It led to the outbreak of the Tigray war in November 2020, resulting in immense human suffering and further straining Ethiopian resources and international standing. Eritrea’s involvement in the civil war solidified its regional role but rekindled longstanding enmities.
On November 2, 2022, a new ceasefire was established through the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF, potentially heralding a new era of peace. However, the exclusion of key combatants, including Eritrean forces, raised concerns regarding its sustainability and led to renewed hostilities, jeopardizing the previous reconciliation efforts between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
In 2024, Eritrea expressed dissatisfaction with the COHA, viewing it as detrimental to its objectives against the TPLF and led to increased military preparations and regional alliances against Ethiopia. Tensions escalated further as Ethiopia sought access to the Red Sea through agreements with Somaliland, adding another layer of conflict as Eritrea aligned itself with Egypt and Somalia in opposition.
The prevailing tension in the Horn of Africa risks drawing in external powers, exacerbating existing conflicts in the region. Ongoing rivalries among nations like Egypt, the UAE, and Turkey could undermine any peacemaking efforts and destabilize regional security. There is a critical need for international oversight to avert armed conflict and encourage dialogue between Ethiopia and Eritrea to foster trust and stability in the region.
The relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea remains fraught with risk as historical grievances and current tensions threaten to escalate into armed conflict. Despite diplomatic attempts, the lack of inclusivity and transparency in peace agreements have rendered efforts fragile. The emergence of new alliances and external influences further complicate the situation, necessitating careful monitoring and renewed dialogues to mitigate the risk of war and promote stability in the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: addisstandard.com
