A study indicates that China’s share of rare earth materials could fall from 62 percent to 28 percent by 2035, with further reductions to 23 percent by 2040. Emerging competitors in Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland threaten China’s dominance, suggesting significant shifts within the industry.
A recent study published in the journal Chinese Rare Earths by researchers from the CAS Ganjiang Innovation Academy predicts that China’s dominance in the rare earth market may significantly diminish over the next decade. Currently holding an estimated 62 percent share, this figure could potentially drop to 28 percent by 2035 as new suppliers emerge from Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland.
The modeling forecasts indicate a further decline to around 23 percent by 2040, marking a significant loss of China’s previously dominant position. Experts warn that this shift could stem from the exploration of new mining opportunities across various regions, which may alter the global industry landscape.
Significantly, even China’s stronghold on heavy rare earths, located in southern China and sourced from ion-adsorption clays, may face competition from Greenland’s Kvanefjeld and multiple projects in South America, highlighting the potential for disruptive changes in the rare earth sector.
The study provides a projection of a substantial decline in China’s share of the rare earth market, emphasizing the emergence of new competitors on a global scale. Such changes reflect potential shifts in resource accessibility and market dynamics, posing challenges for China’s current stronghold in this critical industry. The findings underline the necessity for monitoring these trends as they develop over the coming years.
Original Source: www.scmp.com
