Civilians are fleeing Tigray as renewed tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea threaten to escalate into a broader conflict, primarily due to a power struggle within the TPLF and failures of the Pretoria Agreement. Military mobilization on both sides, internal political strife, and external geopolitical pressures contribute to the growing instability in the Horn of Africa.
Renewed tensions in the Tigray region of Ethiopia are prompting significant concern among civilians who are fleeing the area due to fears of an impending conflict. Both Eritrean and Ethiopian military forces have ramped up their presence along the border, highlighting a breakdown in relations that could lead to a larger war. This renewed conflict stems from Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea access and a struggle for power within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
The situation escalated following failures in implementing the key provisions of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which had previously aimed to conclude the Tigray War from 2020 to 2022. The internal strife in Ethiopia, combined with Eritrea’s strategic interests and external geopolitical pressures, has resulted in an unstable environment within the Horn of Africa, raising global alarms about the potential ramifications.
Civilians are fleeing Tigray en masse, driven by fears of a renewed conflict resembling the catastrophic earlier war. The harsh reality of rising military tensions is underscored by violent clashes that have recently erupted among factions within the TPLF, intensifying an already turbulent political landscape. The presence of Eritrean support for certain TPLF factions further complicates the situation.
Political factions within Tigray are embroiled in a battle for power, particularly between President Getachew Reda of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) and Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael of the TPLF. Internal divisions have intensified as TIRA is seen as overly favoring the federal government, inciting further conflict between loyalists and opposition factions.
In recent developments, negotiations led to General Tadesse Werede’s appointment as TIRA leader, although unrest continues. The rapid mobilization of Ethiopian, Eritrean, and TPLF forces raises concerns of imminent military confrontation, especially as TPLF seeks to regain its status amidst a backdrop of extensive geopolitical maneuvering.
Tensions have escalated in Tigray since August when TPLF factions began establishing independent governance structures. The Pretoria Agreement has failed to solidify peace, with crucial disarmament provisions left unfulfilled and unresolved territorial disputes adding to strains. Meanwhile, Eritrean involvement has consistently undermined the agreement, further complicating the peace process.
Currently, the already fragile diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea are deteriorating, with accusations of mutual support for opposition groups. Ethiopia’s quest for access to the Red Sea, seen as historically justified, heightens inter-state tensions. This has involved Ethiopia seeking new maritime agreements, exacerbating perceptions of invasion into Eritrea’s sovereignty.
The Ethiopian military is currently preoccupied with internal conflicts, notably in Amhara, which may deter engagement in a full-scale war with Eritrea. However, if conflict erupts, there could be severe implications for ethnic violence within Ethiopia, where numerous factions exist. Eritrea may leverage Ethiopia’s military limitations to pursue its strategic objectives effectively.
Instability in Tigray is impacting the regional landscape, as both Eritrea and Ethiopia engage in the ongoing civil war in Sudan, backing opposing sides. The influx of Tigrayan fighters into this conflict is further straining Ethiopia’s resources and igniting additional tensions.
Regional powers such as Saudi Arabia are expressing caution regarding Ethiopia’s military maneuvers, while the UAE is facilitating Ethiopian ambitions, thereby influencing the geopolitics of the Red Sea. Additionally, outside powers like Iran and Russia are exploring opportunities created by the unrest to diminish Western influence and assert their own naval interests in the area.
Moreover, the proliferation of jihadist organizations in the Sahel may find an opportunity to expand their influence amidst the renewed conflicts in Ethiopia, which poses further risks to regional stability. Intelligence reports have indicated collaborative efforts between groups in Ethiopia and Somalia, underscoring the broader implications of unrest in the Horn of Africa.
The renewed tensions in Tigray, fueled by a power struggle within the TPLF and exacerbated by Eritrean interventions, pose significant risks of escalation into a broader conflict. The situation is compounded by unfulfilled provisions of the Pretoria Agreement and deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea. With various factions mobilizing militarily and regional dynamics shifting, the potential for broader regional destabilization remains high, warranting close monitoring by the international community.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
