Tensions in Tigray, Ethiopia, are escalating, with civilians fleeing as Eritrean and Ethiopian military presences rise along the border. Internal power struggles and unresolved issues from the 2022 Pretoria Agreement are deepening divisions. Diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea are deteriorating due to accusations of external interference and competition over Red Sea access, creating a risk of broader conflict with significant regional implications.
Renewed tensions in Tigray, Ethiopia’s northernmost state, have prompted a mass exodus of civilians fearing a resurgence of conflict. Eritrean and Ethiopian forces are significantly increasing their military presence along the border, marking a deterioration in relations between the two nations. This escalating situation is a product of Ethiopia’s aim to secure access to the Red Sea and a power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Notably, failures in implementing the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the prior Tigray War, are exacerbating existing divisions.
The renewed conflict threats stem from the deepening rift between various factions within the TPLF, particularly between President Getachew Reda of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) and Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael. Eritrea’s involvement is intensifying the intra-TPLF conflict by supporting TIRA, leading to the fracturing of the regional administration. This dysfunction has prompted rising tensions and a potential war, with Eritrea aiming to maintain its sovereignty against perceived threats from Ethiopia.
Intense clashes occurred on March 11, resulting in Reda’s retreat following militarized attempts to arrest him. TPLF factions have engaged in violent confrontations, leading to significant territorial changes, including the capture of Mekelle. Reports indicate mass withdrawals by civilians and military mobilization along the border, suggesting that an impending confrontation is on the horizon. Despite negotiations on March 17 appointing General Tadesse Werede as TIRA leader, tensions remain, highlighting entrenched instability across Tigray.
Since the August developments, parallel governance structures initiated by the TPLF have advanced, pressuring TIRA officials out. The Pretoria Agreement, crucial for peace, faced implementation failures regarding its core tenets, like the Tigrayan disarmament mandate. This failure, combined with unsettled territorial disputes and Eritrea’s active interference, continues to destabilize relations between the two nations.
The conflict emerges against a backdrop of deteriorating diplomatic ties between Ethiopia and Eritrea, characterized by mutual accusations of supporting domestic opposition. Ethiopia’s strategic pursuit of access to the Red Sea, portrayed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as historical, further complicates the situation. Additionally, Ethiopia’s 50-year contract with Somaliland for sea access signals a counter-strategy against Eritrea’s interests, leading to increased tensions as Eritrea views this development as a direct threat.
Ethiopia’s military is notably extended, dealing with militant factions within its borders, which may deter full-scale confrontation with Eritrea. Nevertheless, a full-blown conflict could unleash ethnic violence, given Ethiopia’s diverse and often rival ethnic groups. Eritrea’s strategy may hinge on leveraging Ethiopia’s military limitations to pursue its objectives more assertively.
Heightened tensions have regional implications, as both countries are implicated in the ongoing civil strife in Sudan, contributing to instability in the border area of Western Tigray. Reports indicate support for opposing factions in the conflict by Eritrea and Tigrayan fighters, complicating an already fragile security situation.
Internationally, major powers are closely monitoring the unfolding dynamics; for instance, Saudi Arabia expresses concerns over Ethiopian military assertiveness in the Red Sea, while the UAE continues to support Ethiopian interests. Interests of Iran and Russia in exploiting the conflict add further complexity, potentially aiming to undermine Western-aligned governments in the region.
Additionally, jihadist organizations in the Sahel may leverage this instability to expand their influence, signaling broader regional repercussions. Reports suggest that al-Shabaab has been extending its operations in the Horn of Africa, potentially collaborating with domestic insurgents. Given the convergence of Ethiopia’s internal unrest, Eritrea’s strategic interests, and international geopolitical maneuvering, the Horn of Africa remains a critical flashpoint for future conflicts, raising alarms for stability throughout the region.
The article highlights the escalating tensions in the Tigray region as a result of military buildups and internal power struggles within the TPLF. The ineffective implementation of peace agreements has exacerbated divisions, while external influences complicate the situation further. As civilian populations flee and military confrontations rise, the potential for broader regional conflict looms large, drawing in international interests and heightening the risk of systemic instability across the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
