The power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) poses a renewed threat of conflict involving Eritrea, especially following a coup-like takeover of key areas by a dissident faction. This internal strife could draw in regional actors and exacerbate humanitarian disasters, highlighting the fragile peace established by previous agreements.
The internal conflict within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has escalated tensions in Ethiopia, raising fears of an extended war that could involve Eritrea. A dissident faction within the TPLF took control of the main radio station and claimed the city of Adigrat, an act described by officials as a coup. Getachew Reda, the interim leader of Tigray, accused the faction aligned with TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael of collaborating with Eritrea to destabilize the region further.
Getachew Reda replaced Debretsion after a peace agreement in Pretoria last year, which ended a brutal civil war. The Eritrean government, feeling slighted by the exclusion from the peace talks, remains committed to neutralizing the TPLF, which once fought alongside Eritrea in the 1990s. Their previous camaraderie turned to hostility after Eritrea’s independence and the emergence of the TPLF-led government, leading to a protracted border conflict.
Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s forces continue to occupy parts of the Tigray border zone, and the call for their withdrawal has not been heeded. Getachew indicated that Eritrea may view Tigray as a strategic buffer against potential invasions by Ethiopia, which could plunge the region into deeper instability.
Discontent among certain TPLF factions over the Pretoria agreement has also contributed to the unrest. Many feel marginalized by the peace negotiations that led to disarmament, favoring leaders who have since acquired power in the interim administration. The recently assertive Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) sided with Debretsion’s faction, hinting at possible coalitions for profitable endeavors in illegal mining.
Concerns are mounting over Ethiopia’s aspirations for access to the Red Sea, particularly under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, which is exploring diplomatic discussions with Somalia. Reports suggest imminent conflict as military forces from Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the TPLF mobilize. This situation risks destabilizing not only Ethiopia and Eritrea but also neighboring nations such as Sudan, which has historically supported the TDF.
The previous civil strife resulted in approximately 600,000 fatalities, with numerous displaced individuals still relying on humanitarian aid. Ethiopia remains one of the largest recipients of U.S. aid, and significant disruption could worsen existing humanitarian crises that affect millions in Tigray, where access to resources is critical.
The article further discusses other notable events in Africa, including Rwanda’s M23 rebel group withdrawing from peace talks in Angola, the expulsion of South Africa’s ambassador by the U.S., and the contamination of Zambia’s river due to industrial pollution.
The current power struggles within Tigray’s leadership significantly heighten the risk of renewed conflict with Eritrea, which could lead to wider regional instability. As military mobilization intensifies among the involved factions, the legacy of past violence raises concerns for humanitarian outcomes in Ethiopia and surrounding areas. The deteriorating situations reflect a critical need for diplomatic engagement to avert further crises.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
