Standard Bank forecasts Ghana’s GDP to increase by 5.4% in 2025, bolstered by the mining sector. Despite challenges in manufacturing and agriculture, growth momentum appears positive. Jibran Qureishi underscores the importance of addressing fiscal policy issues and improving foreign exchange management.
Standard Bank anticipates that Ghana’s GDP will grow by 5.4% in 2025, reflecting sustained economic expansion. Jibran Qureishi, Head of Africa Research at Standard Bank Group, revealed these insights during the Stanbic Economic Series webinar titled “The Economy Under a New Era.” He pointed out that Ghana’s GDP grew by 5.8% year-on-year in 2024, a significant increase from 2.9% in 2023, marking the fastest economic growth since 2021.
Mr. Qureishi credited the mining sector, particularly gold production, as a primary driver of this economic growth. He noted, “There has been a notable pickup in mining activities across the country, with gold leading the charge,” emphasizing the revival of struggling mines such as Obuasi and the anticipated establishment of a large lithium facility in 2026-2027, which are expected to further enhance economic development.
Despite the positive indicators in the mining sector, challenges persist in other industries. Mr. Qureishi observed that sectors such as manufacturing and real estate remain under pressure, and agriculture productivity was negatively affected by drought conditions in Northern Ghana. He stated that these factors detract from overall growth potential even as mining flourishes.
While acknowledging existing challenges, Mr. Qureishi expressed optimism about Ghana’s economic future, indicating strong recovery signs in mining, which may lead to even higher growth rates in 2026. He cautioned, however, about the necessity to address fiscal policy disparities and energy sector arrears to maintain this growth trend.
In terms of currency projections, Mr. Qureishi forecasted a weakening of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar, potentially falling to GH¢16.4 to $1. He expressed concerns regarding foreign exchange flows, highlighting that revenues from key sectors like mining and cocoa predominantly reach the central bank, rather than the interbank market, which necessitates prudent economic governance.
In conclusion, Standard Bank’s projection of a 5.4% GDP growth for Ghana in 2025 reflects a positive outlook primarily fueled by the mining sector. However, challenges in non-mineral sectors, including agriculture and manufacturing, require strategic attention to ensure sustainable economic development. The need for effective management of foreign exchange and overhaul of fiscal policies is also critical to maintaining the growth momentum and ensuring macroeconomic stability.
Original Source: www.ghanabusinessnews.com
